Russia Versus The Ukraine

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I could write on this for days, but in short there are no "good guys" in this fight but overall I believe Russia has the moral high ground for defending itself from existential threats and attempting to bring Ukraine back into the fold. In 2014, the majority of citizens of the SE portion voted to become Russia.

Regardless of who there is wrong or right, this is not the west's or American's fight. We should not be involved, we are not the world police. I can give many analogies to show the US/West is wrong to engage.

It is so unbelievably foolish for the west/US to provide arms and support in a clearly proxy war that is killing tens of thousands on both sides, and risks direct attacks on the west/US by Russia or surrogates. I cannot fathom how stupid this mess is, and we gain nothing from it.

Thanks for allowing me to vent.
 
Simplististically from a macro-level view, here's my assessment/predictions:
1. Russia/Ukraine. Three possible outcomes in no particular order.
A. Russia bleeds Ukraine dry for years, ultimately the west gives up seeing it as futile and not worth the loses, Russia takes Ukraine.

B. Next 10 years are back and forth losses of life and resources in a stalemate between Russia and the west. Ultimately a truce is reached, Ukraine is divided up and split.

C. Russia loses and withdrawal due to western support. This is the worst case as I believe Russia would launch all nukes to defend itself and punish the west.

China:
China is waiting in the wings, allowing the west to waste resources in Ukraine. Ultimately I believe China will either unite with Russia or act unilaterally on Taiwan when the US is just too weak to do anything about it. Once the US has developed our own chip makers, Taiwan is of little value to us anyway.

There's simply no way possible the US could fight a 2-front war against Russia and China.

Ultimately, the US is going to lose against Russia and China in these wars IMHO. We do not have the money to fight, our military is suffering attrition and aged equipment and low morale, and we are just spread too thin with too many problems, and we are very vulnerable to infiltration, cyber attacks, terrorism here by cell actors, etc.
 
ban1985 said:
All in all, Russia isn't down and I don't think they even started, if the Ukrainian population wasn't so related to the Russian ones, Russia would have hit it a lot harder.
Click to expand...

I agree with this assessment. In my view and understanding:
1. Russia's invasion was actually pre-emptive and defensive. Not "offensive" like the western propagandists claim. The west has antagonized this region for decades. Russia did it relatively gently at first, but escalated it over time. I think Zelinsky will be dead within a year. It appears Russia will probably take Ukraine within a year.

2. Russia defeated the Nazis, pushed them all the way back to Germany, the Russian's are perhaps the hardest people on the planet, and there's zero chance the west is going to defeat them without provoking a total nuclear exchange. The west simply will not step foot on Russia IMO. It would provoke nukes.

If there is a nuclear exchange, Russia can hit any western city in 5-15 minutes with weapons that will destroy cities like London, DC, etc, every military base of the west... Sure, Russia will be obliterated, but it has more nukes than anyone and more advance nukes. Russia will obliterate most of Europe and much of the United States. Most of the northern hemisphere - all major cities and military bases, will be destroyed. So the west knows it cannot "invade" Russia, or this will touch off.

For naive people who think we have capable weapon defense systems, we don't. It's all been a big boondoggle lie to enrich the deep state MIC executives. We have some, but they are too few and inadequate to stop the global barrage of nuclear missiles plus all the decoys that would be fired. (A nuke tipped warhead, might have 5 nukes and 30 decoys, etc.).

If you think our US airspace is secure, look at the embarrassment of the air balloon that infiltrated us and floated around for a week, with impunity, gathering all manner of intel. A complete embarrassment. How about the total intel failures of 9/11/01. We are very, very vulnerable and we have done little to improve our security in meaningful ways (e.g. our southern border sees 2 million infiltrations annually, drugs, human trafficking, etc.). Our best "security" is to stop engaging in stupid wars and to seal our borders.

3. Absent a nuclear war, Ukraine will simply be a dying ground for Ukrainians and later NATO and US Soldiers. Ukraine has no manufacturing or maintenance for equipment - all destroyed - and long supply chains into the nation. Ripe to be hit as they are moved into place. The west will funnel equipment in, and it will get destroyed. Americans who go there, will suffer the same fate as the 100,000+ Ukrainians and die.

Imagine a WWII style gloves-off war with a modern superpower with an actual military who can hit HARD, anywhere in the world, with tech similar to ours.

The US hasn't won a war in 6 decades, and those were all fought against lesser opponents who had no real ability to actually fight. We haven't really fought an air power, or a Navy, or anyone with nukes or ability to hit us hard.

I'm factoring Iraq as some swift victories but ultimately a 20 year loss. Imagine American's resolve when 50,000 American Soldiers die in year one. Also, America hasn't fought a real enemy with real military abilities to strike us as hard as we strike them - city leveling attacks. Imagine "shock and aw" on NYC or Chicago or Dallas. Or imagine a synchronized city leveling attack on our 10 biggest cities on a Wednesday morning along with a nationwide EMP cyber strike! Imagine a dozen attacks each larger than 9/11/01. Imagine if we were crippled in travel, every airliner shot down and every container ship sunk. Russia could hit the west and hit the west very very hard. Harder than any Americans comprehend in a true war.

How would Americans react? How about our stock markets?

Speaking of economics, other super powers could take actions that cripple or destroy the US dollar (BRIC nations are already trying to develop a new petro-dollar), and destroy our ability to import and export goods thereby shutting down our economy worse than Covid did. If we cannot import goods and energy, or export goods, we are economically toast.

I fear a lot of people are far too unjustifiably over-confident in the US/west abilities, and far under-appreciate the damage Russia (or China) can cause. Engaging as we have been and being global bullies, the US is unfortunately probably about suffer a real old fashioned thumping. I pray we can find peace but I fear that result.
 
an invasion of another country is an act of war, pure and simple.
the West could have simply let Ukraine go under but that wouldnt have stopped Putin, he's already threatened Washington, London and the whole of Poland, today he has threatened the whole of Europe and the entire world, just because Zelensky got on a plane and came to Britain, today he flies to Brussels.
Putin issues these threats on a daily basis, nobody with a right mind believes him.
 
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Denying or simply succumbing to fatalism is not my plan . " I prepare " regardless as to whether my attempt at survival is successful or not . Those whose preps is mainly some garden seeds and extra food , will be walking around with the looters , if they survive . Hard core SHTF situation calls for hard core prepping .
 
at least I will survive when the lights go out, unlike some.
nuclear winter and radiation poisoning are not survivable.
if just one nuclear missile is fired by the Russians we will have nuclear armageddon with all the Nato ones fired in reply, nothing is going to survive that, no human, no animal, no plant, even the soil the air and the water will be contaminated.
I prepare for those things that are survivable, not the ONE that is NOT.
 
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Interesting things being floated from a preppers view . A so called Whistle blower claiming Old Demented Joe Biden ordered the pipeline blown up , war airplanes on the verge of being shipped into Ukraine " if I am not mistaken from the UK ". Whether any of these things swirling about is true , I don't know . What I do know is , that I am glad I took prepping serious and prepared for what may lay ahead . As on those apoplectic movies If a Nuclear World War 3 takes place , I don't expect there to be many survivors . My preps are in place as I have no intention of just declaring there is no use prepping for a Nuclear World War 3 and we are all going to die .
 
bigpaul: to date, there have been over 2600 nuclear bomb tests made by America, Russia, China, France and others...
The world even saw the CZAR bomb which echoed and reverberated around the world 5 times with its shockwaves. A nuclear war carried out at the moment would not destroy and poison the entire world. Yes, there will be contaminations, poisonings, radiations and all the other things following the explosions. I do hope and think that the powers that be will see the destruction happening and not use the total of "40 overkill" the world has at its disposal and decide that "it is enough now". Many will survive and start over. Some will be in the stone age (as are many in Afghanistan, Iran, Mongolia and Australia already) and some will still have modern technology as a simple diesel motor, batteries and solar systems. We will survive. Some of us...live free, Gary
 
bigpaul said:
an invasion of another country is an act of war, pure and simple.
Click to expand...
Do you hold the US behavior in invading and drastically interferring in foreign affairs, elections, and economies in the same regard?

Would other nations, say Iran, be justified in supplying the Al Queda in Iraq with weapons to kill Americans during OIF (which, they did by the way.) How about if Russia directly supplied advanced weaponry and training to Afghanistan during 20 years of OEF?

In the grand scheme, given the wests actual violations of promises in the region, Russia is far more justified to re-take Ukraine (a border nation that has been part of Russia more than it has not been in centuries), than the US was justified in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan, or dozens of other places...

Do you remember the Cuba missile crisis when Russia was parking nukes on our "border." Well, the US and west have been doing more aggression than that on Russia's border since the 1990s. Including bioweapons labs in Ukraine, and luring Ukraine to want NATO membership. At what point does Russia have the right to demand this cease?

Further, by analogy, if Texas left the US and created a similar disputed territory, and the US tried unsuccessfully to reclaim Texas, and Texas was trying to join Russia, and Russia was supplying weapons to Texas, what would the US position be?

To Russia's credit it has tried at length to negotiate and for peace. Ukraine - backed by the west/US weapons - has resisted. If the west had not interfered or given support, Ukraine would have had to fold and nobody die. That to me seems like the best resolution considering I'm 95% sure Ukraine will ultimately lose anyway, after heavy losses.

It's a war of attrition and Russia will win. The only way Ukraine prevail is is NATO and the US supply endless reinforcements and ground troops and military weapons. And, that WILL lead to a nuclear war due to the direct military threat by the west and direct war on Russia's border.

So it's an interesting (and hypocritical) position to take to claim Russia is the bad guy here. And it's a unbelievably stupid and dangerous proxy war for the west. We gain nothing and stand to lose everything.

A stable Russia is better for the world as a strong trade partner, than a war adversary.
 
GaRp58 said:
to date, there have been over 2600 nuclear bomb tests made by America, Russia, China, France and others...
The world even saw the CZAR bomb which echoed and reverberated around the world 5 times with its shockwaves. A nuclear war carried out at the moment would not destroy and poison the entire world. Yes, there will be contaminations, poisonings, radiations and all the other things following the explosions.
Click to expand...
I hear rosy pictures of nuclear war and just roll my eyes. Let me describe what would really occur in a nuclear war.

Those tests were spread out over decades and none of those tests were targeting civilian population centers, energy grids, food production, nuclear power plants, or military bases and munitions depots, all major trade ports, all manufacturing centers, all major airports, etc. Gone or irradiated and unsafe.

Taking a lesson from history, however, 23 small yield bombs were tested at the Bikini Atoll islands over a period of ~12 years from 1946-58. The Bikini Atoll remains unsafe levels of gamma radiation and uninhabitable today, 6 decades later.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...-standards-nearly-60-years-nuclear-tests.html
Modern nuclear weapons can reach targets in 5 - 15 minutes around the globe, and many launched off sea from subs. With so little warning, it's almost pointless to warn people and cause a panic. For most people during the typical day or night, they might not receive a warning or have anywhere to hide. What would you do with 5 minutes warning? Not a whole lot.

A superpower nuclear exchange would in fact probably immediately kill hundreds of millions or realistically several billion humans, and nearly all animal and insect life in these areas, on many continents mostly in the USA, Europe, and Russia. It's easy to think 50% of superpower nations' populations would die on day 1. So, 1/2 of the US (175 million), 1/2 of Russia (80 million), 1/2 of Europe (400 million), 1/2 of China (700 million), 1/2 of India (700 million), 1/2 of Japan (80 million), 1/2 of S. Korea (25 million), etc. Day 1, easy to predict that right there is 2.1 BILLION people. Another 25% die in week 1 from injuries, dehydration, local violence, sickness, suicide, etc. That's another billion people.

Probably other nations would launch too, so any nuclear armed nation plus adversaries would be struck. China, France, Pakistan, India, N. Korea, Japan, etc. would suffer badly in addition to the major players.

For instance, nearly all honey bees would be killed. You cannot grow anything, without honey bees. So you would have no more crops, no flowers, no fruit trees, nothing. No pollen. No bees. No agriculture. Period. Almost all livestock would be dead. Either killed instantly or in the first few weeks through poisoning or killed for food. Cows in Nebraska might survive the initial attack, but they'd eat grass and drink water infected with poison fallout. Then die. No livestock - no food. And no baby livestock. No eggs. No calves. No more. Gone.

So in addition to the probably billions dead on day 1-3, another couple billion would be dead in the first 6 months. Fatality numbers in the major countries would easily reach 80% or more in my view. Directly from the attacks, or any number of struggles among the survivors - injury, illness, violence, starvation, dehydration, radiation sickness, and suicide would easily claim billions of people in the first 6 months.

Of those maybe 20% survivors, their lineage survival rates would be very low due to the malnourishment of the mother, birth defects, or mother death in child birth (and lack of having a caring parent, no breast milk, no food, just an extra mouth to feed), and/or lack of baby food. Education/skill rates of those who might survive infancy to grow, would be at Neanderthal rates with no schooling, no traditions, no community, and simply put to work to survive at the earliest ages (8 years old, doing hard labor).

The northern hemisphere would be uninhabitable for a century as well as key industrial and urban areas of huge parts of the S. Hemisphere. No global trade, tribal warring for resources, etc.
Imagine all the poisons and toxins in society released in the air, the ash, the water. Radiation clouds and dirt blocking the sun, causing poison rain to fall on the earth and into water tables, etc.

The quick death and rot of hundreds of billions of animals and plantlife would overcome any sanitation attempts and the air would smell of rot decay for months. Rats would flourish, overcome any population areas, and spread black plague type diseases. All modern conveniences would cease - electricity, gasoline powered engines, plumbing, running clean water, waste disposal. Fires would burn out of control for years with nothing to suppress them except running out of fuel.

The global economy would be in tatters. Nearly all farmland in these regions would be poisoned from direct hits or fallout. The global economies and currency reduced to nothing. Barter economies would be the means of survival.

Any possible survivor in these entire regions would deal with physical injuries, emotional PTS injuries of unimaginable degrees, dehydration, starvation, malnutrition, infections, irradiated and toxic foods, untreated long-term ailments would lead to early death, limited or no medical treatment or medicines, literally die from pain, unchecked gang violence and crime, and defensive killings would claim huge % unimaginable today; basically living in hell so that suicide rates would probably reach 90% in these areas for these and more reasons.

Close your eyes for a moment, and imagine everyone you know, every creature, every human, every city, and every joy in life gone and destroyed or damaged or suffering badly. Kids, parents, siblings, spouse, friends, pets, livestock, coworkers - all gone. Your home. Your city. Your retirement plans. Gone. The guilt. The remorse. The anger. The lack of hope of ever having joy in life again, no family, no vacations, no holidays, no safety and comfort. Just pain, anguish, misery, and struggle for survival.

That's what a nuclear war means.
 
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I was a nuclear warhead specialist in Pershing from '78-'85 and signed for up to 27 - Y17 warheads personally...
I know all what you described before you were probably born unless you are also over 45 years old...
I also know that the number of persons on the earth who have prepped and have everything they need to rebuild and repopulate the earth, their herbal knowledge, the gardening knowledge, the amount of books they have accumulated for perpetuation of their family and friends if they get to survive and the amount of human desire to live in a new and harder life. The few years I served showed me the need for faith in our God and strength in numbers of like-minded persons.
Your words are correct, your predictions (or someone else's) are quite near the truth, your desire to show the readers here may be truthful and you may wish the right reactions...but, I believe that the most deaths will be from dehydration, hunger and cold. The lack of human contact will drive many insane and could lead to suicide.
The lack of bees and other insects could be balanced thru hand-pollenation, (as I do on my cherry tree now) and the strength of the survivors is not to be underestimated as they KNOW they are the future.
We all know (most of us) that this must all take place and prepare the way for the Lord that many of us believe in and wait for gladly. As the rest of the world is only "collecting money and things" along the lines of
--Whoever dies with the most toys wins--and the others are collecting knowledge and prepping, I must assume that those reading yours and my words of wisdom, hopefully, will not see much of the destruction of the
"momently existing world" and will be taken away according to our belief and at just the right moment.
I will gladly leave all my preps to those who remain behind should I die, as I cannot take it with me anyway.
IF they only have the knowledge to use half of the stuff I have prepped...they should be able to last a while.
Until then, live free from fear, Gary
 
poltiregist said:
Interesting things being floated from a preppers view . A so called Whistle blower claiming Old Demented Joe Biden ordered the pipeline blown up , war airplanes on the verge of being shipped into Ukraine " if I am not mistaken from the UK ". Whether any of these things swirling about is true , I don't know . What I do know is , that I am glad I took prepping serious and prepared for what may lay ahead . As on those apoplectic movies If a Nuclear World War 3 takes place , I don't expect there to be many survivors . My preps are in place as I have no intention of just declaring there is no use prepping for a Nuclear World War 3 and we are all going to die .
Click to expand...
war planes are not, repeat NOT, on the verge of being shipped from the UK.
first the Ukrainian pilots have to be trained how to use them, that may start in the spring, sending jet planes to Ukraine from the UK is a long term aspiration nothing more.
if a nuclear War takes place anyone who wants to survive will need an underground bunker sealed away from all the contamination, and a way of growing their own food which will require a self sufficient power supply for heat and light for the crops as in a nuclear winter, anything up to 5 years, there will be no natural sunlight so solar panels will be useless, there is more to the nuclear threat than just storing some radiation suits.
its one thing saying that one is set up for nuclear war and then moaning when the electric goes off for a couple of days!!
 
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MrLemonade said:
Do you hold the US behavior in invading and drastically interferring in foreign affairs, elections, and economies in the same regard?......

A stable Russia is better for the world as a strong trade partner, than a war adversary.
Click to expand...

You answered your own question in that last line. Stability is why countries interfere in the foreign affairs and economies of other countries.

My heritage is of that part of the world and it is a historically more complex situation than you seem to understand. Russia was wrong to invade Ukraine. It is because of this action, that we are even talking about WWIII.
 
bigpaul said:
war planes are not, repeat NOT, on the verge of being shipped from the UK.
first the Ukrainian pilots have to be trained how to use them, that may start in the spring, sending jet planes to Ukraine from the UK is a long term aspiration nothing more.
if a nuclear War takes place anyone who wants to survive will need an underground bunker sealed away from all the contamination, and a way of growing their own food which will require a self sufficient power supply for heat and light for the crops as in a nuclear winter, anything up to 5 years, there will be no natural sunlight so solar panels will be useless, there is more to the nuclear threat than just storing some radiation suits.
its one thing saying that you are set up for nuclear war and then moaning when the electric goes off for a couple of days!!
Click to expand...

What you are speaking of is a Nuclear Winter made famous by Carl Sagan "A Path Where No Man Thought" circa 1990...specialists in the area have, over the decades and with modern understanding and data have since disproven his theories.

It is highly likely, that if you are not within the immediate area, you could, with some thoughtful preparations, survive.
 
my location is nowhere near any govt or military target, but its the nuclear winter-anything up to 5 years- that will finish off any survivors.
it was bad enough over here when Chernobyl exploded, a lot of the land and animals were exposed to radiation and a nuclear war would be many times worse than that. 80% of the population of my country now live in big cities, so just by targeting those cities the enemy could wipe out 80% of the population + the ones that die later from radiation poisoning.
I am not alone in this opinion, I have talked to several preppers who hold the same thoughts.
 
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rainingcatzanddogs said:
Hmmm. Norton just blocked the website link as "dangerous". Same happened when I linked to the story on Drudge. Somebody doesn't want it read. Didn't work through the search engine either...the only links that are working are the ones that cite Biden refuting it.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/seymour-hersh-nord-stream
Click to expand...

Let the World understand one important FACT…America didn’t do this, the biden Regime, handled by the WEF did this!!!

Most AMERICANS are against removing life necessary supplies, like OIL, from others!
 
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