When does an 'economic collapse' begin?

[Gazrok]

The stock market is at an all time high, unemployment is at all time low, nothings been stronger.

Just like 2008, the stock market is artificially (and dangerously) overinflated right now.

Sure, it appears unemployment is down, but that's only if you really play with the included factors and what you exclude from that number. In reality, the REAL figure is more in double digit territory.

And we've definitely been stronger (anyone else remember facing this many imminent government shutdowns if they didn't agree on a budget before?). Me neither.

I think that's why Trump resonates. He's calling out the BS. Unfortunately, for him, some of his other ideas are just to un-PC for the mainstream. Guess we'll all see what happens.

 

[Hippophibia]

Economy is based on house and car sales which are all debt and the banks have relaxed conditions of purchase like no deposit and 7 years to pay back vehicle, at close to zero rates.
The party cant go on forever and the small rate rise is a bit of a party pooper. It is going to take a good few months - but it is definitely getting very interesting.

 

[Hippophibia]

Things are getting interesting again. The stock markets tumbling today on first trading day of year, does not bode well. Have we finally reached the point where fundamentals apply.
China on a trading halt today as markets more than 7% down, Japanese stocks down more than 3%, European stocks opened -3% (Dax, biggest market in Europe) US futures down down. US JNK eft junk bonds still crashing below key support levels. Gold price up $12.5 USD an ounce. Bad news from china manufacturing - more shaking coming!!

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/europe/

 

[Gazrok]

China has been cooking the numbers for years, and they're just now getting called on it. I suspect it will continue to go bad as more of their discrepancies see the light of day. There is some light, as this was really needed in the long run....but also, in the long run...this system is simply not sustainable. It only "works" now, because it HAS TO....the powers that be simply can't afford otherwise.

 

[Hippophibia]

Not sure if you guys saw this article where the 20th largest bank in the world is telling all investors to sell everything and get capital back as we are heading for another 2008 type collapse. The article is making a lot of waves and is quiet frightening.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears.html

Commentary from the economic collapse blog.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/...taclysmic-year-and-investors-should-be-afraid

Great British Borrowing Binge sends debt rocketing 40% in just 6 months This is where the remaining economy is debt.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/great-british-borrowing-binge-sends-7166258

 

[Maverick]

...though china GDP is 11,385 and it's GDP PPP is 19,510 (2015) with a differences of 8.125, the bilaterally distorting of numbers is not only going to hurt china but every country that has invested in china, china's fake cities and constant building with no tenants is nothing more than a ruse to prop up it's PPP numbers and everybody knows it so why the hell would they give china's renminbi reserve status given it's PPP distortion? It's this kind of distortion that brought on the housing bust causing financial institutions to fail. This global economy is nothing more than a sham at the highest order, more and more I'm thinking WWII is over, the US ought to go back to being an isolationist and let the Sterling go back to being the primary reserve... oh wait.... na, we are screwed either way!

 

[diluted]

Started a while ago... I don't think any of us can predict when it will really fall apart.

 

[Gazrok]

Stocks continue to fall, goods are piling up in storage yards, global trading is nearly at a stand-still, and now Iran is back in the international oil game, so oil will go down even further. Don't get me wrong, I like a cheap price at the pump, but that has some far-reaching implications too, as oil futures are a basis for a lot of loans that are going to go bust....and we ALL know what happens when a large segment of loans go bust....

As for being similar to 2008? I think we should almost HOPE and WISH for that....personally, I think it will be FAR worse....maybe even complete collapse. I just hope we can hold it together a little bit longer (for me to finish my desired preps!)

 

[Maverick]

When oil prices goes below sustainable prices these are the industry affected (in the picture below), wells fargo already lost 118million in energy loans and counting, other banks haven't posted yet.
The affects is such a broad spectrum that's going to hurt a lot of people and states. Enjoy the cheap gas prices, come the end of this year it's all going to catch up to us.

 

[Hippophibia]

As for being similar to 2008? I think we should almost HOPE and WISH for that....personally, I think it will be FAR worse....maybe even complete collapse. I just hope we can hold it together a little bit longer (for me to finish my desired preps!)

I have been 'preaching' doom and gloom since August last year that we have gone over the tipping point. Yeah all the puzzle pieces are coming together for the crashes of all crashes - I am sue civil unrest and end of grocery shopping will come with it. Need lots of veg seed in your preps - not sure what else to say. I think by October 2016 the picture will be very clear to all. Even mainstream media is publishing lots of scary stuff.

 

[Silent Earth]

Methinks I shall very shortly be visiting the dry foods and long life food dept again very soon and put a major dent in my credit cards.

 

[Gazrok]

Need lots of veg seed in your preps - not sure what else to say.

Yep, it's why the garden just has to start in Feb. My wife is still a bit on the fence, not seeing the urgency, but we basically have two main planting times here, Feb and Sept., and I don't want to put it off until then. I want to get going with it.

 

[Hippophibia]

The bad news coming in fast and thick. Stocks major tumble on Wed, US stock futures down big time, oil getting smashed.
Things are bad in Europe and world, there is no good news, developing economies were the growth engine of last recession 2008, and drop of interest rates, now no more ammo for Fed reserve and debt much much worse and it is all unraveling. Mainstream media publishing lots of scary stuff as below.

World faces wave of epic debt defaults, fears central bank veteran
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html

 

[Gazrok]

It's a perfect storm.
Nobody is buying oil, because nobody is MOVING anything. International trade is at a stand-still.
So, supply increases, cost goes down.
Add to that Iran now entering the game, and at the worst possible time....
Oil has nowhere to go but down, and that will bankrupt many energy companies, which will then default on loans, yet again collapsing major banks.
It's unavoidable, and everyone knows it, yet because it is too bad to bear, it's like everyone in conspiring to assuage consumer concerns and paint a rosier picture....but we all see the man behind the curtain, and he isn't smiling.

 

[Maverick]

Back in russia, the affects of lower oil prices

Ruble taken a major hit... Again

Almost half of russia's budget is taken up by it's defense spending whereas it's oil revenue supply half of the russian budget then take into account it's social commitments

russian financed minister stated they are not attending the Davos economic forum in Switzerland because... they can't afford it. Perhaps the most truthful thing ever coming out of the kremlin!

russian ruble = 1 US dollar 81.56 russian ruble
russian ruble = 1 British Pound 115.45 russian ruble
russian ruble = 1 Euro 89.03 russian ruble
russian ruble = 1 Australian dollar 56.28 Russian Ruble
russian ruble = 1 yuan 12.40 Russian Ruble <> 1 US dollar = 6.57 yuan's (hmm)

From yahoo news,

As gas and oil account for more than a half of Russian budget revenues

Low oil prices have complicated the government's ability to meet its social spending commitments

Isolated protests have over the past few months been reported in several cities over the planned cancellation of social benefits and companies failing to pay wages on time

 

[Maverick]

Hmm, economist have been all over the TV saying in no way inflation is heading our way and our economy is doing good providing 200k new jobs a month so I guess a wait and see

 

[bill harrell]

Ahhhh.....thers the good news I was looking for.

 

[Gazrok]

The media seems to be doing everything they can, to keep everyone calm and believing these bogus reports. As the market indicates though, folks aren't falling for it. I'd love to be wrong though.

 

[TexasFreedom]

I haven't looked at this thread for a couple weeks, and it's funny how quickly things change and yet stay the same.

Since Jan 1, market's have lost about 8% of value? In the US, China has been much worse. But the news is watching Trump day after day and mostly ignoring this little adjustment. Actually what surprises me is that they're not showing graphs from August and saying "hey we did this a few months ago, this is bargain shopping time, in August buyers made a very quick 10% profit in only a few months... so only suckers are selling now." That's the level of deceit I see, so I give them credit for not shouting this from rooftops (although some are saying exactly this).

In related news, the poisoned-with-lead water in Flint,MI is blamed on high pension salaries (city can't afford to pay for WATER!). Thank the democrat-run town and force the state to save their incompetence? And in CA there is talk of using private 401k's to support the state's failing pension funds? I think I read some of their gov't pensions are only 52% funded. Ouch.

Drip, drip, drip. This collapse is happening in very slow motion. But it moves faster every day.

 

[Gazrok]

Government jobs seem to be the only ones even giving pensions these days...