When does an 'economic collapse' begin?

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TexasFreedom

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I ask this question because I think we're already there.

But let me explain. Disasters do not happen all of a sudden. Not a single one. That is, IF you know what to look for. Is a hurricane a surprise? Nope, weathermen can tell you where it's going 1-2 weeks ahead of time. War? Nope, the 'sabre rattling' typically goes on for months if not years before open war starts. I'm not saying we have the knowledge/understanding to predict every disaster (ie Earthquakes), but for many we do have the insight. And for others we're just not smart enough to see the signs.

Now back to the economic mess. Is there anyone who doesn't see economic rumblings, dark clouds on the horizon, winds picking up? I would argue that if you look at the specific details, every single signal is there for a massive economic disaster. 5% unemployment? Sure, if you count master degree experienced workers flipping burgers down at McDonalds and discount the 'disenfranchised'. Sometimes you need to dig behind the simple number.

Now to the topic of when does a disaster start. I believe that is when the causes of the disaster reach a level that is not reversible, without divine intervention, and you do not prepare. Welcome aboard, we got there a few years back. There is no single cause but dozens. Loaning money on homes without evidence the mortgage can be paid. Encouraging welfare so 1/4 or 1/3 of the population are 100% leeches on society, and breeding like rabbits. Opening our borders to disease and crime. Federal spending like they are printing money (like that one?). And at the top of the list: denying that God is the source of our blessings.

This is not your normal up & down economy. We passed that decades ago. Let me give another example. When are you the 'victim' of a hurricane? When the weatherman says it's a danger 10 days before impact? When you do nothing to prepare? When 2 days out he says it will 100% hit directly on your house? When you see the first clouds & rain? Or when you drown in the storm? I argue the end was set when you ignored all the warnings. And you were not the victim of the storm, but of your own apathy.

Welcome to the modern economy. Are you prepared?
 

Gazrok

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Welcome aboard, we got there a few years back
2008 to be exact. Everything since then has been a band aid over a hemorrhaging head wound.

However, it doesn't TRULY become a collapse until folks can no longer get their money out of the banks (or face limits on amounts). That will be the true moment when things hit the fan...
 

bigpaul

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i think the economic collapse started the minute people loose their jobs and have to rely on food banks to live, most of the time it takes several months of unemployment before welfare payments can begin the backlog is that long, and if someone is employed on minimum wage its almost impossible to put back an emergency fund or a food store when someone is on rock bottom to start with.
 

Gazrok

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My wife and I would make $23 too much on unemployment to qualify for food stamps...last time both of us were laid off at the same time (in 2008, after the crash)....

Ridiculous.

Pretty much takes a full month or two after you are laid off, to collect your first unemployment check.
We had a nice emergency fund a few years back, but then I was laid off and it took 6 months to find something decent. Even then, the job sucked, but luckily, a better opportunity came along, so then did that.
 

Hippophibia

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I read the economiccollapse blog: He has been publishing (Today) that it has started esp with Junk bonds failing the last few trading days.
This Is What A Financial Crisis Looks Like
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/this-is-what-a-financial-crisis-looks-like

To go off track - read a vision the other day (from 1970") where the person saw the tribulations of the last days. Basically what happens is that the economy tanks - there is a very bad winter and every one trapped in their houses and after wards the starvation sets in. This is preceded by floods, drought storms etc which make the end result worse.

Ignoring any spiritual aspect, I recon we are in the start of the collapse and mother nature is adding stress to the system.

The Truth Comes Out: "This Is The Worst Global Dollar GDP Recession In 50 Years" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...ar-gdp-recession-50-years-deutsche-calculates
 
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Gazrok

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Just wait until the real numbers hit from this retail season. I don't know about you guys, but this has been my leanest Christmas ever, and I didn't even hit Black Friday like I normally do. We'll still all have presents, etc., but each one cost a lot less than in years past, so we spent a lot less and on less expensive gifts.
 

Maverick

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There won't be any real numbers, just like the official unemployment/employment numbers just like the numbers coming from wall street they are skewed so as far as I am concerned the shtf has already began just that the majority haven't felt it yet since most numbers are artificially kept afloat, I hope I am wrong though I don't see anything giving me encouragement.
 

Gazrok

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Stocks sure had a roller coaster week (and up/down by triple digits). Yet, I check CNN, Newsweek, etc. and it isn't even in their top news items.... WTF?

And they say we're crazy thinking there is a conspiracy......

At least the Fed raised interest rates....pretty much the band aid most were expecting....(though it's a band aid over a gaping wound.
 

Maverick

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House passes $680 billion tax bill
On Friday, the House will vote on a $1.1 trillion bill that funds the government through September 2016.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/house-spending-tax-votes-216896#ixzz3ubawh8NI

Budget deal increases federal deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars

"Republicans, meanwhile, said they were in too weak of a position to prevail over Mr. Obama"

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/dec/16/budget-deal-increases-federal-deficit-by-hundreds-/

The Repubs control both houses of Congress, Don't tell me they are in weak position, they hold the power of the purse, I call BULLSHIT! if there is a conspiracy it would be that the repubs and dems are of the same cloth but then again many of us knew that already No, the fix is already in.
 

DrHenley

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The Repubs control both houses of Congress, Don't tell me they are in weak position, they hold the power of the purse, I call BULLSHIT! if there is a conspiracy it would be that the repubs and dems are of the same cloth but then again many of us knew that already No, the fix is already in.
The RINOs are in cahoots with the Democrats, that's why.
 

Gazrok

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if there is a conspiracy it would be that the repubs and dems are of the same cloth but then again many of us knew that already
Exactly why I like Trump. He's in it for his own personal legacy, not taking marching orders from the powers that be. Of course, it is also why he'll never get the nomination, so it is all a moot point anyhow. The establishment chose the next President almost a year ago, so all of this is really nothing more than a dog and pony show....masturbatory politics, if you will.....
 

Maverick

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I was reading earlier today that many dems in Florida is moving over in support of trump, there's a lot of pist off people in this country, the pols attacking trump truly don't know or don't care what the American people want, trump is saying what many of think and want to be heard, it wouldn't surprise me if trump does get nominated wether or not trump is electable remains to be seeing, I'm not ruling anything out.
 

DrHenley

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I have been hearing that Trump support is grossly under-reported. Reporters are saying that people come up to them all the time and tell them off the record that they are Trump supporters.

Gazrok, there was actually an RNC meeting last week discussing a brokered convention.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...brokered-convention-is-no-surprise-heres-why/
Last week, a number of Republican Party leaders – including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell – gathered for a dinner party organized by Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee. They reportedly discussed how the party would handle the possibility of a brokered convention and, specifically, how they could prevent Donald Trump from winning the nomination if he wins a plurality but not a majority of the convention delegates.
 

Gazrok

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At this point, if the GOP doesn't go with Trump though, they are basically admitting defeat right out of the gate. Even with Trump, they likely won't win vs. Hillary. But, they could bank on a LOT of closet Trump supporters though too. My work is too young, for example, so I can't admit to liking Trump here....but most of these yahoos won't go to the polls either.

If he runs independent though, the GOP is sunk.
 

BiteMe707

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Shhhhhh. Don't tell the liberals this.I work for a small shop run by 2 exteremly liberal bosses. Don't call them liberals it ticks them off they prefer progressive what a joke. But I digress.

I tried explaining to them the economy is in death thrawls and bout to wither and die. I got screamed at and told its never been better. The stock market is at an all time high, unemployment is at all time low, nothings been stronger. Obama voters I tell you. There insane. This is precisely why the majority will not prepare. They believe all the bull crap coming out of CNN and MSN, just blindly following without question. That my friends is why most will not even think about and preparedness, they gladly sit ignorant with their heads in the sand.
 
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bigpaul

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dosent matter where we live, the sheeple will never prepare and will believe all the BS that the media and politicians feed them. that's why I believe the collapse, WHEN the final collapse occurs, will be something greater than has ever happened before, and the death rate amongst the non prepared will be astronomical.
 

TexasFreedom

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Let me bring this discussion back to the economy.

A couple of thoughts on recent events. Fed raising rates 1/4%. ALL show & tell. 100%. Dem's want to have 'proof' that the economy is improving. In a few months politicians (Hillary) will be able to say "the economy is getting better under socialism, see the fed started raising rates LAST YEAR and continue this year... it's only going to get better under me with continued socialism."

Reality: 1/4% means nothing. And "last year" is a weak point when done the last week of the year.

Christmas sales. Retail are down 6-7%. Compare that to the 'expected' down 3% number I read a few months ago. And that is AFTER stores are offering BIG discounts early. The stores are trying to get their 'revenue' numbers up. But the reality is that profits are probably down 30+%. Simple math: if a store makes 20% profits normally, you reduce sales by 7% and add that they dropped prices 10%. Heck, that formula alone drops profits to 0%. I don't expect stores to not have any profits for Christmas sales, and they will try to hide how bad it was, but boardroom discussions will be heated.

AND these horrible sales numbers while people are saving $billions on gas prices. They expected people to spend the 'savings', it's not happening in retail!

Gun sales. Guns are flying off the shelves. Oops, I'm not going to Macy's but going to Cabela's instead! Not only is this bad for traditional stores but consider what this says about people's faith in our gov't. Their faith in the police. Their security. Their response to Obama's anti-gun rheteric.

Housing sales. I saw something this week that November sales were down 10.5% month-to-month. It said something about the biggest month-to-month drop ever (from memory, I could be wrong).

So put it all together. The gov't has put on a blindfold. People are not buying 'stuff' or houses but are loading up on weapons.

Modern comparison: this is the moment in the movie JAWS where the guy is in the water, and the "daaa DUMM" music is playing. Gee, guess what happens next?
 
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