Advice needed - Island Bug ins

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mixester

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I am in a situation where I am stuck on a relativley small island with a huge populaiton density. I have an option to relocate to a major continent. However I am hesitant to do this I am not sure if this is me afraid of change or if my logic is correct ?

If you own the means of production (food) on an island you have more pricing power
Your production land can be overrun but it can on a major contient
If you survive the initial purges, then your chance of survival increase on a continet you do not know where you will be hit from next
On the continent I am not a local, language, community and religon
Water is an issue on this island, but if well planned ahead it can be managed (wells)

Scenarion A: (World war z style)
There is a stronger inital shock for sure and my greatest worry is those well organized and with weapons will run the show when the contacts with the rest of the world will be cut off

Scenarion B: (Slow decline depression)
Fuel prices become expensive, import price soar.
Law and order are relativley OK , theft from fields increases.


Again on an island, there is no where ot bug out excpet the sea, but when you come back expect your homestead to be occupied...
 

ViolentJ

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Interesting scenario... I have always assumed a small island would be an ideal place to live in a SHTF scenario, although I never really gave it much thought. From the situation you described at least on the main land you have the possibility of bugging out?

How big is the island?
 

DrHenley

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I don't think I'd want to be on a heavily populated Island unless I had a seaworthy boat and could secure it. If I had the ability to launch quickly with supplies, then I think I would be in pretty good shape.

Personally, I don't plan on being anywhere near a major population center. I realize that may be difficult to accomplish in some parts of the world.
 

mixester

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It is very difficult to define major populaiton centre. The golden horde will travel far and wide when it is hungry, short of antartica, the north pole or the middle of the sahara now where is really safe..
 

Gazrok

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I have always assumed a small island would be an ideal place to live in a SHTF scenario
It would be, except when coupled with a dense population. Then, it's like New York City, and more of a nightmare situation come SHTF.
 

ViolentJ

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Yeah I hadn't really given that much thought... Think id prefer to take my chances on the mainland unless the island is pretty big and maybe you could "disappear" into less population dense areas... Completely depends on the size of the island in question... I.e. UK is an island with areas where one could disappear as opposed to New York like you said which is far too densely populated
 

jimLE

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if i lived on such heavily populated island..i'd go partly with what drhenley says.id make sure i had a seaworthy boat and could secure it quiekly.and that includes,loading up all the supplies that i can..food water first aid weapons n ammo,etc etc...plus i'd be searching for the best bug out location possible.be it another island or the main land..and at the same time.the bug out location will need to be where i can get close as possible with the boat,so i wont to carry my supplies any further then nesscery from boat to location...then move the boat to a well hid location if it's not hid already.
 

mixester

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What you are saying makes sense however how much wieght are you giving to factors such as community, language, religon, race, social capital, ability to obtain and maintain infrastrucutre ?

What would you prefer being on an island with friends who would prefer defending the little you have or on a boat in the middle of the ocean with zero chance of protecting from pirates or on the main land on the run, victim to the first bandits you encounter. I have been considering these things very carefully, the chances of dying in a densley populate island vs the chances of dying on continential europe are not that different.

For those of you who can relate to walking dead for example, when where the group more comfortable in the prison or on the road ? Hauling supplier in an SHFT ....

There is no right and wrong answer I am just asking if I am dead wrong.

One clear problem on a small island is finding like minded people, although once you find them you have a pretty strong group I would think ..
 

Gazrok

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Depends on what kind of stronghold you can create on the island. Has to be big enough to sustain the group, yet small enough to effectively patrol it. I don't care what anyone says, but 50 acres is simply too much for a small group to effectively patrol, for example. Even on a dense island, has to be some area where you're away from folks, even if just a little.
 

jimLE

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here's some things to think of.the weather of each season..tornados/hurricanes if yall have them.tsunamis bad/harsh winters.rain and snow storms..if a person prepares for these,and take prepareing for each situation 1 or 2 steps further when preparing for times like that will help prepare for economic collapse or a emp if not other situations..
 

psalm 7

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I would also look at history . How did your part of Belgium get by in WW2 now that would qualify as SHTF if anything does .
 

mixester

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This is the big issue anywhere in Europe, the population is extremly high. The agricultral land is and fragmentedesepecially in the east and the populations are culturally different. Given a few months after shftp it will not be up to the size of your group which matters but if the bigger groups will choose you as a target eventually there will be no other small groups left and turn to your group. On A small isalnd, eventually the island inhabitants will have no choice but to become one group. For a period there iwll be fights but then at some point the population and the food supply will equalize.

In WWII , there was extreme hunger and those who got in the cross fire dead.

Would you Bugout in Italy or Cyprus ? Italy has a history of nation states continually fighting each other.

Would you bug out in Spain or the canary islands ?
What about Sicily or Malta?
Guernsey or the UK ?
 

DrHenley

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I'd say Guernsey. The overall population density is still pretty high, but it's concentrated in St. Peter Port. Guernsey is mostly farmland, and there is a robust fishing industry that is not overly reliant on modern technology.
 

mixester

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This comes back to my inital problem. So let's say an Italian or Belgain bugs out in Guernsey. The world takes a dive and the Italian is in Guernsey tending to his small farm. The frarms next door are friendly but they have relatives coming from the capital to their farm they do not have enough land to support all 10 realitves... What do you reckon will happen next ? This is my main concern with bugging out to a completley different locaiton. Social capital, nationality, being part of the local faith and social fabric for a long time are the REAL prepps..... If in Guernsey A and B are respected members and A kills B. A will have a hard time from all the population he will loose their trust. However if A kills D, who is a newcomer and was a "threat to the local society", then A willrest easy that his trust will not be lost. The math in bugging out is not simple I have discovered. The issue with islands is the less resources their are the fiercer the fighting but once that is done, it will be less painfull ..the big question is how do you come out alive and in one piece if the island goes in chaos for6 months to one year ?


Come on guys help me out here :) I am looking for someone to shoot my ideas down. I can only buy my small house and hopefully adjacent field once.
 
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