Are we there yet?

[DrHenley]

Have we reached herd immunity for Delta?
And was it the vaccine that got us there?
Current active cases for the five states with the highest vaccination rates, and for the five states with the lowest vaccination rates.
Out of the five with the highest vaccination rates, all are still on the rise. Even though it looks like Connecticut plateaued, it ended on an uptick.
Every single one of the states with the lowest vaccination rates are either peaking, have plateaued, or are dropping.
Vax Data taken from Johns Hopkins and charts from Worldometer.
Links to source data at the bottom

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/us-stateshttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[DrHenley]

And then there is this:
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/573393-delta-surge-appears-to-be-peaking-in-us-analysis

 

[Amish Heart]

I don't think Fauci's "herd immunity" is a thing anymore.

 

[DrJenner]

These are cases - what are hospitalization rates?
At this point, the case rate doesn't even matter anymore except to show spread- it's the hospitalizations that should matter - due to the strain on the medical facilities in putting off necessary surgeries, etc.

 

[DrHenley]

These are cases - what are hospitalization rates?
At this point, the case rate doesn't even matter anymore except to show spread- it's the hospitalizations that should matter - due to the strain on the medical facilities in putting off necessary surgeries, etc.

Hospitalizations and ICU patients vs. capacity here. Broken down by COVID and non-COVID patients.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend

 

[DrJenner]

So interesting.
We are told no ICU beds in the state last week which is when this data was taken. Patients being shipped to Salt Lake.
I’m guessing this is physical beds and not due to staffing?

 

[DrHenley]

Physical beds.

 

[DrHenley]

Along the same lines...

Assumption: COVID-19, like all other epidemics, will eventually burn itself out when enough of the population has been infected.
Hypothesis: The point at which the Delta wave starts to burn itself out for a given region, in this case a US state, correlates more closely to percentage of the population that has been infected (by all strains) than to vaccination rate.
Test: Take the 5 US States with the highest infection rate per capita, and the 5 US States with the lowest infection rate per capita, and compare vaccination rates, and the graphs of current number of active infections.

Not totally scientific, but I just want to see how it turns out. Will post the results...

 

[DrHenley]

#1: Tennessee (highest infection rate)

 

[DrHenley]

#2 North Dakota (second highest infection rate)

 

[DrHenley]

#3 Florida (third highest infection rate)

 

[DrHenley]

#4 South Carolina (fourth highest infection rate)

 

[DrHenley]

#5 Arkansas (fifth highest infection rate)

 

[DrHenley]

#47 Washington (47th highest infection rate, including D.C.)

 

[DrHenley]

#48 Oregon (48th highest infection rate, including D.C.)

 

[DrHenley]

#49 Maine (49th highest infection rate, including D.C.)

 

[DrHenley]

#50 Hawaii (50th highest infection rate, including D.C.)

 

[DrHenley]

#51 Vermont (51st highest infection rate, including D.C.)

 

[DrHenley]

So the answer to the question "Are we there yet?" would seem to be that in states with the highest infection rates (and some of the lowest vaccination rates), the delta variant has burned itself out already. The magic number seems to be around 17%. That's not to say another variant might come along and shake things up. But for Delta, the answer is "yes" in a number of states.
In states that have the lowest infection rates (and some of the highest vaccination rates), it ain't over yet. South Carolina and Oregon look like an outliers however...

 

[erqueen75]

What states are all these people from the southern border being "placed" in? Couldn't be in correlation to the uptick in cases to these states?
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said Monday he did not expect such a surge in the Delta Covid-19 variant as he admitted that the 'rate of illness' at the southern border is now 20%. He said that one in five migrants are showing up at the border with an 'illness.'
Eh, Tomato, Tomahtoe. Covid-19 or Drug-Resistant TB. Covid-19 or Hepatitis? Covid-19 or Mumps or Measles or ...

Pray for the brave agents at the border and their families.
What is happening to America?
Erqueen75