VenomJockey
God Like
First time I've seen anything with actual probability percentages. Wonder how accurate it is??
https://www.reddit.com/r/preppers/comments/8u0rqh/probability_models_for_shtf_scenarios_with_actual/
Probability models for SHTF scenarios with actual percentages
I've only gotten into hardcore prepping recently since i saw an article on CMEs and their likelihood being 12% in any given decade (https://www.enr.com/articles/42151-what-is-the-chance-a-solar-storm-could-knock-out-the-power-grid). The author of the cited space weather paper, Peter Riley, has used other models to arrive at 10.3% in a decade which i used in my analysis to give a conservative value.
I was curious to find out how likely i would really need to bug out and if it warranted the large expense of a cabin in the woods stocked with bullets, beans, and bandaids. I am not an outdoorsy type so recreation would not be a good enough reason.
I then found an article on the likelihood of a civil war/revolution based on historical events (https://medium.com/s/story/the-surp...-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437). Which put the odds at about 1 in ever 170 years
I also found an article looking at a paper that reviewed historical pandemics by a Harvard guy using historical pandemics (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK368393/) which had a staggering estimate of 3 percent each year of pandemic
I'm working on a spreadsheet model using the Bernoulli approach(cited by paper above and used to estimate likelihood of rare events) and probability theory to determine combined odds of a SHTF scenario.
My initial findings, show that in the next 50 years the CONSERVATIVE probabilities of the following events are as follows.
https://www.reddit.com/r/preppers/comments/8u0rqh/probability_models_for_shtf_scenarios_with_actual/
Probability models for SHTF scenarios with actual percentages
I've only gotten into hardcore prepping recently since i saw an article on CMEs and their likelihood being 12% in any given decade (https://www.enr.com/articles/42151-what-is-the-chance-a-solar-storm-could-knock-out-the-power-grid). The author of the cited space weather paper, Peter Riley, has used other models to arrive at 10.3% in a decade which i used in my analysis to give a conservative value.
I was curious to find out how likely i would really need to bug out and if it warranted the large expense of a cabin in the woods stocked with bullets, beans, and bandaids. I am not an outdoorsy type so recreation would not be a good enough reason.
I then found an article on the likelihood of a civil war/revolution based on historical events (https://medium.com/s/story/the-surp...-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437). Which put the odds at about 1 in ever 170 years
I also found an article looking at a paper that reviewed historical pandemics by a Harvard guy using historical pandemics (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK368393/) which had a staggering estimate of 3 percent each year of pandemic
I'm working on a spreadsheet model using the Bernoulli approach(cited by paper above and used to estimate likelihood of rare events) and probability theory to determine combined odds of a SHTF scenario.
My initial findings, show that in the next 50 years the CONSERVATIVE probabilities of the following events are as follows.
- CME equivalent to a Carrington event, independent of other events - 40%
- Either a CME or Social Unrest (e.g. civil war or revolution) - 53.4%
- Either a CME, Social Unrest, or a Pandemic - 81%
