Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average Could Begin a 70% Decline in the Next Few Weeks

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DrHenley

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More ominous signs for the economy:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1338...begin-a-70-decline-in-the-next-few-weeks.html

[quoteThere is a rare bull market pattern that, once it ends, is one of the worst formations that can occur. It has two names. Some call it the megaphone pattern, as its shape resembles what many know as the voice amplifier that coaches and referees use to get large groups of people to pay attention.

Those who know its implication for the financial markets refer to it as the Jaws of Death pattern. [/quote]
 

diluted

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I'm a good 20 years from retirement I'm ready for this.. might actually be good for those of us that are a ways off.
 

Arcticdude

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Yes, I think that we're due for a significant market correction soon, but I look at these drops as good times to buy more shares at discounted prices. Most of my stock investments are all large cap safe dividend payers. The share price fluctuates, but the dividends have remained steadily paying me from 3 - 12% interest, depending on company. All of my dividends are reinvested too, so the number of shares continue to grow. I do believe that there will eventually be a world wide economic collapse. I just think that it's still a few years away though.
 

Brent S

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Yes, I think that we're due for a significant market correction soon, but I look at these drops as good times to buy more shares at discounted prices. Most of my stock investments are all large cap safe dividend payers. The share price fluctuates, but the dividends have remained steadily paying me from 3 - 12% interest, depending on company. All of my dividends are reinvested too, so the number of shares continue to grow. I do believe that there will eventually be a world wide economic collapse. I just think that it's still a few years away though.
Historically the market has been the best place to have your money grow. Just never forget that it is very similar to going to Vegas. I do think there will be a big drop before long, but am hoping it will have time to recover before I retire in ten yrs. I took 85% of my 401 recently and moved it to the safest investments, which don't pay crap. When I see a large drop I will move it back to more growth oriented stocks. I honestly think the market will take a hard beating this coming year. As a matter of fact, if I could take the money out right now I probably would, but it's just not worth the 50% penalty and taxes.
 

Hippophibia

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I am expecting collapse by or before next year US election. No matter how you look at it the fundamentals, what's happening on the ground, statistical analysis, analysis of previous crashes all the way back to the demise of the Roman empire - all the same issue patterns and trends are repeating and screaming eminent failure.
There is simply too many things currently going on to list them all: As per previoys post this author has a good grip on what is going on, a number of easy read articles on the blog: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

Previous rate hikes by US fed during fake economic improvement (looking back {1929, 2000} at figures it is now accepted that the country was actually in recession when the rates were hiked) is just another scary thing. US GDP is down, manufacturing, consumer spending is down down. Fed has repeatedly said the US consumer will save the day by spending and the economy will be fired up. What I am hearing is the US consumer is up to their eyeballs in debt with little disposable income.

Next week Wednesday US Fed rate decision will be interesting - no matter what decision they make it will impact on markets.
PS: the junk bond market is already crashing big time.
 

Silent Earth

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I believe the collapse began in 2008 with the Sub prime fiasco and the banking collapse, nothing has really improved since, the banks are just shuffling what left about, nations debts are increasing, taxes increasing but public services being cut. Tax payers in westernised nations are paying ever more direct and indirect taxation to prop up bloated public welfare spending t care for ever more scroungers, parasites and MILLIONS of migrants from the southern Hemisphere and the middle east / near east.

Everything you see today is just sticking plasters over a broken compound fracture, we will lurch from crisis to crisis in an ever downward spiral because no one has the will, courage or authority to stop it.

The Insanely rich will get richer and ever more isolated, those in the cities will see streets get more dangerous, jobs less, affordable housing non existant, decent schooling unavailable, trauma care a lottery, those with any REAL commitment to themselves, their loved ones etc WILL leave the cities, those who cannot or wont well that's life.................and death.
 

Hippophibia

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Everything you see today is just sticking plasters over a broken compound fracture, we will lurch from crisis to crisis in an ever downward spiral because no one has the will, courage or authority to stop it.
Personally I think the broken compound fracture wound has gone gangrenous; too many band-aids the patient is now terminally ill and the wound is starting to smell very bad and no amount of antibiotics (QE, now drug resistant) and oxygen (Interest rate fudge) is going to save the patient. Death will be swift. After junk bonds and stocks have collapses the fiat currencies will go and you will wake up one morning with all banks closed and no money to circulate.
 

Gazrok

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Yep, and while I hoped this would take at least 5 to 10 years to fully come to fruition, signs always point to it being sooner and sooner. C'mon, just give me a couple more years of prepping...then I'll be where I want to be...keep slapping on those band aids....
 

Joe SA

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Yep, and while I hoped this would take at least 5 to 10 years to fully come to fruition, signs always point to it being sooner and sooner. C'mon, just give me a couple more years of prepping...then I'll be where I want to be...keep slapping on those band aids....
I think if the SHTF you and yours would do fine, all those extra things will be a bonus yes, but your mindset is in the right place/mode.
 

Joe SA

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I'm not much of an economic expert, what i know about world markets and the rest might be extremely dangerous, so i wont make a lot of post on the economic side of things. But our "beloved" president mamaged to knock the teeth right out of the Rand, single handedly yesterday, by firing the the Minister of Finance and instating a new one that werent able to balance the books of a local municipality. The whole country and all the oposing parties is in an uproar about this and calls him shortsighted, i though think that he purposefully did this, because they want to get the anarchy started, this will also keep his butt out of jail, his time as President is nearly over, and all the corruption cases that was put on ice when he became President will resume.
 

Hippophibia

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I'm not much of an economic expert, what i know about world markets and the rest might be extremely dangerous, so i wont make a lot of post on the economic side of things. But our "beloved" president mamaged to knock the teeth right out of the Rand, single handedly yesterday, by firing the the Minister of Finance and instating a new one that werent able to balance the books of a local municipality. The whole country and all the oposing parties is in an uproar about this and calls him shortsighted, i though think that he purposefully did this, because they want to get the anarchy started, this will also keep his butt out of jail, his time as President is nearly over, and all the corruption cases that was put on ice when he became President will resume.
I think just gross incompetence :crackhead:, the sacked minister was prob telling him to stop stealing money and the RSA is broke and need to apply austerity - that would go down very badly with the ANC. So Zuma puts a person in that he can control and is too dumb to see what is really goring on.

Tito Mboweni former reserve bank manager: "Why SA needs to fight ‘junk’ status with all we’ve got" RSA is one rating above junk:http://www.fin24.com/BizNews/tito-m...-fight-junk-status-with-all-weve-got-20151209

One of the signs of imminent financial collapse is high corporate liquidations, been like a 100 global private corporations liquidated in last 3 months - not seen since the last recession. Going on from this contrives are starting to fall over a large number broke like (South America) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, a number of Arab countries - I have been posting on a few sites that African countries will be next!! The dominoes keep falling. Now to check the markets! 6:30 Sat Aus Time. as they say "Don't worry about the world ending today it is already tomorrow in Australia" I will give you the Australian heads up if the world comes to an end - you will at least get some warning;)
 
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Hippophibia

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Global stocks not doing to well Friday: Europe more than 2% down, heavy weight Germany 2.4%. US so far 1.5%. (ended 1.95% down)
Oil continuing to shock! "US oil settles at $35.62 a barrel, plunges over 10% for week"
Maybe I am doom an gloom but everywhere I turn I see bad indicators.

Stocks Crushed Friday With the S&P 500 Suffering Its Worst Weekly Loss Since August - and 2012. http://www.thestreet.com/story/1339...ering-its-worst-weekly-loss-since-august.html

"So, what triggered this huge selling event on Friday? There will be many opinions as to what caused the selloff, but, China's Central Bank signaled on Friday its intention to loosen Yuan's peg once again to the U.S. dollar. China says it will link the yuan to a basket of currencies. This simply means that China is allied with the Euro and Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve are on their own if they raise interest rates. In September, Janet Yellen was threatened by the IMF and others not to raise interest rates. This time the threat is coming from China. This may be a possible game-changer for the Fed and it may not raise rates after all."

"In addition, there appears to be the panic in the junk bond market that has finally started to appear on everyone's radar screens. The SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) was decimated this week to the tune of down 3.96% and now down 12.74% for 2015. This, coupled with the fact that there is over $9 trillion in dollar denominated emerging market debt and over $5 trillion in energy related debt, you can understand the panic if Yellen raises interest rates."

A major junk bond trader company halted trading and prevented withdrawals.
"Stocks closed out a volatile week with sharp losses Friday as oil hit nearly seven-year lows and news of another corporate merger weighed ahead of the Fed's highly anticipated decision on rates next week. News of a roughly $800 million junk bond fund preventing withdrawals also unnerved markets. "

As said before too much going on to mention - so I will stop editing this post, and just see what happens.
 
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Gazrok

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Well, to keep perspective, it was already up more than it fell, so not near as bad as it would seem without that context. The Fed decision to raise interest rates is just a band aid, but a sorely needed one to avoid a panic.

I think if the SHTF you and yours would do fine, all those extra things will be a bonus yes, but your mindset is in the right place/mode.
Right now, water would be the first pain. Sure, we have it, and replenishable, but GETTING IT WHERE IT NEEDS TO GO is the hard part. At least without some power backup for that pump yet.

The next pain is no air conditioning post SHTF. Our home isn't designed well for cross-breeze windows. We'd need another solution. Gets real hot here.
 

Hippophibia

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Well, to keep perspective, it was already up more than it fell, so not near as bad as it would seem without that context. The Fed decision to raise interest rates is just a band aid, but a sorely needed one to avoid a panic.
My comment on the US rate rise is that the Fed dug themselves into a corner and had no choice but to raise. The current stock market is no longer an investor market but a short term trader market - they all hedged their bets that the Fed would raise rates so the market surged for a day or two, now they have come off the cocaine high and the unwinding crash is starting as I had predicted. Band aid has fallen off.:shtf

To answer the thread on timing "Why the Dow Jones Industrial Average Could Begin a 70% Decline in the Next Few Weeks.".
Apologizes this is a repost from another forum that I am on, but I think we need to take note and be aware of potential SHTF to be ahead of the pack.

As per my previous post Friday US stocks big drop as expected, Dow Jones down more than 2%, US markts in the red for the week and year so far. It is a sea of red. The only 'sizable' stock market that did not go into the red was ASX - but basically flat for the day, but am expecting big drop on Monday. http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/americas/

Crude oil ($34.73) and commodities still dropping. I think the oil debt in the US is bigger than the housing bubble that created the 2008 great recession.

I read an article a good few months back that said things are always worse than what we are told. IN the 2008 crash banks gave estimates of their liability - it ended up that the liability was 2-3 times what was stated. We are seeing may cracks in global economies - but it is just the tip of the iceberg. Japan world third largest economy on very edge of implosion - they started printing more money on Friday - in stead of booting the markets it is scaring them. Central banks band aids no longer working?? Eurozone and Brazil also on the verge of implosion. I know I have said this before keep you seat belts fastened the system is unwinding and mother nature is giving the proverbial left hook.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-Storage-Keep-Prices-From-Breaking-Trend.html
"Greasing the wheels for today’s wobbles has been news overnight from the Bank of Japan, who announced new steps via quantitative easing to boost its ailing economy. While BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda described the stimulus measures as an adjustment – as opposed to an expansion – the market viewed it as surprising as it was desperate. Signs that the Japanese economy could be even weaker than it seems has sent a shock-wave through markets."

"Aside from the Japanese excitement, there been a lack of economic data out overnight – a shrinking Eurozone current account and ongoing rampant Brazilian inflation have been the two releases of note."
 
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