What if scenario

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getnready

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I thought it would be interesting to see how like minds would think:

What if for some unknown reason diesel fuel suddenly sky rocketed to over $9.00 a gallon?

At first most people would probably not care nor pay attention, " I don't drive a diesel". What they don't realise is that truck drivers make there money on the miles they haul product. Lets say 3 weeks go by and fuel prices continue to rise, so the truckers refuse to haul food to the stores and warehouses! Most truckers have contracts that pay a pre set mileage. They cannot afford the fuel and shut down the transfer of product.


How long do you think the stores would be able to keep the shelves stocked?

How long could you feed your family on the goods you have stored right now?

Remember for now we still have power, water and that feeling of complacency that people will act civilized. But for how long?

This scenario has happened in other countries and could easily happen here. Are you ready?
 

jimLE

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nope not ready..but thats because im not stocked up every thing i need yet..i might have 2 to 3 months of food.and thats most n like includes streetching it to make it last.gotta work on getting more propane,gotta get stocked up on water in case we end up with no running water.got sodas.but that wont work for cooking.
 
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I thought it would be interesting to see how like minds would think:

What if for some unknown reason diesel fuel suddenly sky rocketed to over $9.00 a gallon?

At first most people would probably not care nor pay attention, " I don't drive a diesel". What they don't realise is that truck drivers make there money on the miles they haul product. Lets say 3 weeks go by and fuel prices continue to rise, so the truckers refuse to haul food to the stores and warehouses! Most truckers have contracts that pay a pre set mileage. They cannot afford the fuel and shut down the transfer of product.


How long do you think the stores would be able to keep the shelves stocked?

How long could you feed your family on the goods you have stored right now?

Remember for now we still have power, water and that feeling of complacency that people will act civilized. But for how long?

This scenario has happened in other countries and could easily happen here. Are you ready?
The stores would be able to last maybe 3 days.
Right now we would be ok for maybe 2 months.
Before things got bad, I would guess about one week. Shortly after people found out that there was "really" no more food or water coming in!!
This beg the next question....For those that are planning to bug out at what point do you go? This is where I am suck! We plan to to bug in at first then go to our bug out location. BUT WHEN?
 

jimLE

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well gettingreadymama..that depends on exactly where yall live.and how bad things are to where yall live...some folks plan on buging out right away.while others plan on buging out after things settle down to staying put no matter what on acount they have a good enough location to stay put.BUT,seeing how yall plan on bugging out.check out everyone and every thing.by looking at one person,and think.what is that person liable to right now when it comes to right and wrong.then think.what will that person do after tshtf..does the person have a wife/husband.does the person have child or children to think of..a parent will do whats needed for a family member..have yall planed more then 1 bug out route?just because 1 route will work right now,dont mean it'll work later on after tshtf....can yall leave the roads and traval cross country if needed?
 

Brent S

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The stores would be able to last maybe 3 days.
Right now we would be ok for maybe 2 months.
Before things got bad, I would guess about one week. Shortly after people found out that there was "really" no more food or water coming in!!
This beg the next question....For those that are planning to bug out at what point do you go? This is where I am suck! We plan to to bug in at first then go to our bug out location. BUT WHEN?
Every situation will be different, like Jim said a lot depends where you are, urban, rural, what the emergency is and how severe. I'm not one to overreact normally, but if you wait too long it probably will not be safe to travel roads. If you're lucky enough to have a second home in a safe area, going on an impromptu 'vacation' at the first sign of a bad situation might be wise. I have a great small SUV but it's only 2wheel drive, my next vehicle will be a 4 wheel drive as that will give you more travel options. I like the scenario getinready presented as not all disasters will happen all at once, like a storm or earthquake. Some situations could start slowly and build worse over months such as hyper inflation. One situation in the Middle East could double the price of fuel overnight, and as pointed out it would effect the price of EVERYTHING. The best you can do is keep your eyes open, stay informed with national and world news, and listen to that gut feeling inside you that everyone has but most ignore. If that little feeling in your gut tells you it's time to run, then do it. No one else is going to take care of you, especially our government, so trust your own instincts.
 
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Jim and Brent,
Thank you both for your word and advice. Both of you make a great point. Jim- yes we have 3 different routs planed, but none go thru land!?!?! I now see that that will have to be changed. I do know how long each one takes on foot, in a car, or bikes but not with caring items. CONCERN THERE! I live in a small town with lots of farm land only 2 food stores but just off the interstate. UGH... is that bad or is that good?
Brent- you are so right about the whole feeling in your gut!! That is why I started prepping 2 years ago. But I am concerned with the whole urgency of WHEN, when it may be as you and Jim said a slow progression of things happening. I made a statement last night to my husband and to our one friend that is with us in getting ready, I said," I think the best time for us to leave is when you both can not go to work!" Because there is no longer work to go to. I mean when SHTF they would not be going to work to install granite?!?! RIGHT?
 

jimLE

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your welcome..if yall check out cross land route(s).yall will probally need to make sure to have the needed tools with yall.like bolt cutters for cutting barbed wire..hammers and pry bars for pulling nails and/or what ever.a hand held folding saw for cutting tree branchs and tress..liveing just off of the interstate can have it's adavantages and disadvantages when it comes to where yall live now..for example.is it hid from view from the road?..how much traffic do yall see on that road?very lil traffic can be good if the people liveing in the area can be trusted after tshtf.
 
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your welcome..if yall check out cross land route(s).yall will probally need to make sure to have the needed tools with yall.like bolt cutters for cutting barbed wire..hammers and pry bars for pulling nails and/or what ever.a hand held folding saw for cutting tree branchs and tress..liveing just off of the interstate can have it's adavantages and disadvantages when it comes to where yall live now..for example.is it hid from view from the road?..how much traffic do yall see on that road?very lil traffic can be good if the people liveing in the area can be trusted after tshtf.
That is great advice! I never thought about many of those items before. There is a fair amount of traffic but no you can not see the town from the interstate. So much that I need to go over and revisit our haves and our must get lists. I am so thankful that I have found all ya'lls!! As far as the people that live in town that is a toss up on how much you can trust any of them. My hope is that they will all want to work together to keep our town locked down and safe BUT I can not count on that nor can I trust that! Our plans will have to be to get to our bug out location!! As you all stated before even close friend will turn on you if they have to provide for their one and you have what they NEED!!
 

Kenprep1979

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I thought it would be interesting to see how like minds would think:

What if for some unknown reason diesel fuel suddenly sky rocketed to over $9.00 a gallon?

At first most people would probably not care nor pay attention, " I don't drive a diesel". What they don't realise is that truck drivers make there money on the miles they haul product. Lets say 3 weeks go by and fuel prices continue to rise, so the truckers refuse to haul food to the stores and warehouses! Most truckers have contracts that pay a pre set mileage. They cannot afford the fuel and shut down the transfer of product.


How long do you think the stores would be able to keep the shelves stocked?

How long could you feed your family on the goods you have stored right now?

Remember for now we still have power, water and that feeling of complacency that people will act civilized. But for how long?

This scenario has happened in other countries and could easily happen here. Are you ready?
Ok noone ever wants to see things like this happen but it is a very real possibility!
as for the stores keeping there shelves stocked i believe it would be tuff for a few weeks but! other arrangements would be maid wether by train or gas box trucks, there is always a way.
luckily for us here in kentucky we have several food distribution companies that are actually based here and tons of active farm land.

The good i have stored would feed my family for maybe 3 weeks if rationed its not alot ! food dehydration is a slow process!

How long before people start being uncivilized? i give it a month tops ! so many families out there living pay check to paycheck already who can barely afford to feed there families as it is these would be the first to act out of desperation and there are alot of families in this situation as we speak.

Am i ready? i dont think anyone no matter how prepaired you think you are is ready for something like this ! something that could turn best friends into worst enemies, something that could make a good man a respected man abandon his morals and beliefs , something that could force that man to kill so that his family might live. I am not ready.
 

jimLE

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exactly.a shtf situation will turn the best of friends into enemys.it'll also turn good people into bad people. it'll even turn family against family.
 

Kenprep1979

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exactly.a shtf situation will turn the best of friends into enemys.it'll also turn good people into bad people. it'll even turn family against family.
Its a terrible thing! and it brings a kinda depressing feeling over me the thought of how weak we really are.
 

jimLE

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yeah it is depressing as can be..but it's a part of life..and the thing of it,is.. a lot of familys dont get along so well as it is..it'll be worse afterwards.i cant help but wonder what many family members will just up and walk away from family afterwards just because they dont get along so well.or for some other reason(s)
 

getnready

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I am glad to see the awesome responses! Brent S you are so right that this type of situation would probably start panic slowly then take off like a wild fire.

Think of the people who rely on eating out for most of their meals or those that grocery shop weekly to just keep enough in there pantry. They will not know how to cope with this lack of service. Caos....

Gettingreadyma, sounds like you could hold out comfortably. If things in your neighborhood make you feel un safe, then its time to go. Hopefully the trip to your BOL would be without aggressors.
 

Warriorhealer22

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This "what if" scenario is far more believable than most. As a country, we can weather through a lot because of our size and diversity of geography. I see this scenario played out like a severe weather situation- it'll get bad for awhile then settle down. We have a lot of infrastructure. I'm sure prices will go up on everything!

I think there is a good hidden question here- when to bug out. When you cannot sustain life, or the direct safety and security are compromised. It doesn't mean you cannot ever come back, as it may be a temporary situation. When the central grid goes away (power, water, sewage, garbage collection, utilities) is another good sign.

One thing about your overland route- if you are cutting through someone's property YOU ARE TRESSPASSING! Be aware. If you read other posts on this site, you know how some feel about trespassers.
 
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I am glad to see the awesome responses! Brent S you are so right that this type of situation would probably start panic slowly then take off like a wild fire.

Think of the people who rely on eating out for most of their meals or those that grocery shop weekly to just keep enough in there pantry. They will not know how to cope with this lack of service. Caos....

Gettingreadyma, sounds like you could hold out comfortably. If things in your neighborhood make you feel un safe, then its time to go. Hopefully the trip to your BOL would be without aggressors.
I hope so too! A big fear! I hate the unknown! I hope that all our plans work out as well!!! Each day it seems that the concerns of massive life changing event is just a step away! With the massive drought in our bread basket, to the threats in Russia, and the active earthquakes, and so on...I am so very NERVOUS!! It is an urgent feeling in my gut and I for the most part I listen to that feeling! Starting to pay a little more attention to my prepping needs as opposed to my comfort wants!
 

Gazrok

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When to bug out?

A simple answer...when you get to the point where you have exhausted all of your supplies except those which you can reasonably carry and still reach your BOL. The caveat to this is if there is a security threat that overrides this timeframe.
 
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When to bug out?

A simple answer...when you get to the point where you have exhausted all of your supplies except those which you can reasonably carry and still reach your BOL. The caveat to this is if there is a security threat that overrides this timeframe.
Gazrok, thank you! All of your post makes me think deeper!
 
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When to bug out?

A simple answer...when you get to the point where you have exhausted all of your supplies except those which you can reasonably carry and still reach your BOL. The caveat to this is if there is a security threat that overrides this timeframe.
You are right! I guess that when the time comes many of my questions will be answered and I hope with all of my planning and prep work I will be "READY"!!
 
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