The Golden Horde

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If 10,000 city f#@ks (aka refugees) headed straight to my place after SHTF its unlikely that 5 would actually make it, even less in winter. Why would they pass up fertile farm land, large dairy and feed lot operations, huge potato and onion warehouses, cross desert and go over mountains just to find my little valley? I'm not too worried, besides city dwellers wouldn't know north from south.
 
Well said and outstanding post.

I have noted more than a few preppers, mostly survivalists think when SHTF it will be under their ideal conditions.
Or by some miracle they will find fuel along the way to get them to those far off rural areas.

We saw the results of lack of clean water in Afghanistan with cholera outbreaks. Took IV saline hydration solutions to save a few thousands of people.

"There's a reason professionals study logistics."
That right there.
Doing the math for just how many resources it takes to supply a relatively small group should tell people the insane logistics it would require to maintain a Horde.

There will be no organized resupply from depots. Hordes will progressively grow weaker and weaker in comparison to smaller groups. Even hitting a jackpot target like a family prepared for 3-5 years of SHTF would give a Horde only a day or two of supplies, at best.

Relying on what the average home in America has on hand would result in starvation for a horde in a matter of weeks. Starving people are weaker, slower, dumber, and more susceptible to disease/less capable of surviving injury.

As the reality of what a post-medical care society looks like sets in, not many people are going to want to risk the injuries that come from raiding. The whole concept makes for great fiction, but is pretty divorced from reality.
 
I never thought for a second the horde would be organized. My expectation is that it will just be tens of thousand of people fleeing the city, each (certainly smaller family units) with their own agenda/plan/direction. It's just alot of people, like a swarm of locusts. That's why I think it best to be miles from the hwy system. Anyone close is going to have thousands of people asking for help, food, water, gas,...
 
Organized or not, anyone traveling in a huge group will have to contend with the same problems. If it's disorganized, add in-fighting to that list of problems - the families or smaller groups that have stuff will just be targeted by other families or small groups amongst the larger whole.

I have no doubt people will flee the cities. I just don't think any of them will make it far, in any numbers that matter to anyone who isn't close to those cities.
 
In much of the country there are thousands upon thousands of head of cattle, horses, and even more sheep and hogs. If any of these "hoards" had half a brain among them they would drive as many cattle, horses and sheep ahead of them as possible. If they're moving in the late winter early spring they'd have a lot of calves and lambs to eat too. Meat shouldn't be an issue.
Of course we know that most of these hoards would be fleeing the citys, and if any of them had brains to begin with they wouldn't in living in the city.
 
In much of the country there are thousands upon thousands of head of cattle, horses, and even more sheep and hogs. If any of these "hoards" had half a brain among them they would drive as many cattle, horses and sheep ahead of them as possible. If they're moving in the late winter early spring they'd have a lot of calves and lambs to eat too. Meat shouldn't be an issue.
Of course we know that most of these hoards would be fleeing the citys, and if any of them had brains to begin with they wouldn't in living in the city.

Are any of those herds close to truly large population centers? How many people know how to butcher animals? How many are likely to share their kills?
How long will those herds last as far more are killed than are actually needed to feed the numbers involved? How long will people function on diets that are almost completely meat-based?

Hordes aren't smart, because most people aren't smart. If it wasn't due to the transportation abilities of modern society, we couldn't feed our current population, even if current production continued.

Take away both transportation and production, and famine is a certainty. The denser the populace is in an area, the faster that famine will hit.

Nomadic populations only work when those populations are relatively small, or when non-nomadic producers are available to trade with.
 
True SHTF scenario, the number of deaths would be staggering. Hordes would be even more at risk for several of the threats

What time of year does this occur? Winter and Summer both have risks associated with them - Winter probably being the worst. Not just deaths from cold, but a lack of anything growing, animals being laid up, roads and paths being more treacherous, etc.

Lack of medical care means minor injuries can kill. Minor illnesses can morph into deadly diseases.

Lack of abundant, clean water. Boiling doesn't fix everything

A Horde requires vast resources to maintain. There's a reason professionals study logistics. How much fuel, food, water does it take to keep a large group at fighting strength, and where are you going to find those resources as you get farther from cities? How are you transporting the resources needed to simply move a Horde, and how do you know there are resources to sustain/restock it where you are going?

The US is geographically huge, with large swaths being sparsely populated, and other parts only compounding all of the problems mentioned above (how do you get a Horde through the terrain you would need to traverse to get to SW Texas, for example? Better yet, why would a Horde feel the need to head to SW Texas?)

Hollywood glosses over that huge factor. Why would a Horde be where you are? Are you right on a highway that leads someplace that Horde might want to go? If not, by the time a Horde might get to you, lack of resources and die off will have taken it far below Horde-level.

Oh yes. In 1994 Southern Calif. had a big earthquake. Afterward, they dynamited the freeway, sealing off northern Los Angeles Country from traffic from the North. But you certainly could walk on these freeways. Someone began looking at this from the Golden Hoard perspective. Evidently, it is three days without water, five days without food on foot. But that would get these people into a mountainous rural area where there is some water. They would quickly overwhelm the roughly 10k residents in that area. I lived in this area once and still have a few relatives there. I have tried to make them understand their plight.

Now imagine a clear road and just one tank of gas. That is roughly 300 miles before running out. The Nevada/Arizona border is within reach. So are all the communities on the way.

Whether you believe me or not, greater Los Angeles is the largest city in America by a long way. There are more than 10 million people there. So in case of a really big earthquake, no food, electricity, communications, or water in greater Los Angeles, the police would bug out, the National Guard and Highway Patrol would protect the elites in that area and gangs would take all resources over and rule by terror. People would start leaving on foot if by no other method.

So even if you are prepared including being armed, this Golden Hoard is going to be a threat even if the disaster happens a long way from you. Think about how YOU, not the authorities, would close roads leading into your community or area.
 
Here are my concerns:
Live near a medium sized liberal city that has trained it's citizens to be dependent on the govt. People (gangs) are also used to running into the burbs to steal things (burglaries/cars/etc) and have had little judicial recourse. It's now a trained response. Need things? Go to the burbs where they got stuff... Our area also saw a lot of BLM and antifa riots/looting, and the city let them... further reinforcing the "take what you need" mantra...

Now, factor in that we live in an "on-demand" society. Should food dry up, those who are used to eating fast food all the time, and grabbing groceries for that evening meal, are going to run outta food pretty quickly. I can totally see these members of society quickly preying on those who do have things stocked up, and then eventually hitting up the burbs (where the pantries are large)...

These are some of the scenarios my MAG have gone through. How to defend our neighborhood.
 
The Golden Hoard will steal and kill each other the same way they will treat you. While they are rolling, they are going to be unstoppable. They are not going to push cattle ahead of them or act in any organized or rational way. They are the zombies of horror movies without trying to be. They will overwhelm everything until they run out of water if on foot, gasoline if in vehicles. They are a prepper's worst threat because they will appear in all SHTF settings, no matter what the underlying cause.
 
"The Golden Horde" is pure fiction, in a country like Britain we are not used to evacuating even in wartime, when a serious event happens people are told to go indoors, shut the windows and sit tight.
nobody will go anywhere or do anything until the store shelves are empty and the lights go off, until that happens they may gripe and moan but they wont do any more than that.
 
Doing the math for just how many resources it takes to supply a relatively small group should tell people the insane logistics it would require to maintain a Horde.

There will be no organized resupply from depots. Hordes will progressively grow weaker and weaker in comparison to smaller groups. Even hitting a jackpot target like a family prepared for 3-5 years of SHTF would give a Horde only a day or two of supplies, at best.

Relying on what the average home in America has on hand would result in starvation for a horde in a matter of weeks. Starving people are weaker, slower, dumber, and more susceptible to disease/less capable of surviving injury.

As the reality of what a post-medical care society looks like sets in, not many people are going to want to risk the injuries that come from raiding. The whole concept makes for great fiction, but is pretty divorced from reality.

Potable water alone would reduce the horde to a plodding mass of humanity.
Likely they would gather around a water source and then some idiot would defecate in it and let the sanitation issues commence. That would be the cholera outbreak we saw in Afghanistan, as they had a drought more so than usual for that country.

I could see some with some degree of organizational skills or leadership try to keep some degree of order, and many will gladly follow such people.
 
Oh yes. In 1994 Southern Calif. had a big earthquake. Afterward, they dynamited the freeway, sealing off northern Los Angeles Country from traffic from the North. But you certainly could walk on these freeways. Someone began looking at this from the Golden Hoard perspective. Evidently, it is three days without water, five days without food on foot. But that would get these people into a mountainous rural area where there is some water. They would quickly overwhelm the roughly 10k residents in that area. I lived in this area once and still have a few relatives there. I have tried to make them understand their plight.

Now imagine a clear road and just one tank of gas. That is roughly 300 miles before running out. The Nevada/Arizona border is within reach. So are all the communities on the way.

Whether you believe me or not, greater Los Angeles is the largest city in America by a long way. There are more than 10 million people there. So in case of a really big earthquake, no food, electricity, communications, or water in greater Los Angeles, the police would bug out, the National Guard and Highway Patrol would protect the elites in that area and gangs would take all resources over and rule by terror. People would start leaving on foot if by no other method.

So even if you are prepared including being armed, this Golden Hoard is going to be a threat even if the disaster happens a long way from you. Think about how YOU, not the authorities, would close roads leading into your community or area.

Go to a Wal-Mart.
Those are the people who would make up the majority of the horde. Most of them get winded walking from their car to the sliding doors, let alone walking three days and be in any kind of fighting condition.

Use the terrain to your advantage.
 
all kinds of SHTFs - and some will start a reverse Golden Horde >>> countryside will head to the surviving & supplied cities - Where did the Covid vaccine go first and inoculations available only???? - won't be any different with some other related type limited resource .....
 
without food or water they wont get very far and would get progressively weaker the further they walked.
the ones that would attempt it will be fairly young and male, no elderly person, female of any age or young child would even think of doing it, young males will squabble and fight over every morsel of food or mouthful of water.
 
Go to a Wal-Mart.
Those are the people who would make up the majority of the horde. Most of them get winded walking from their car to the sliding doors, let alone walking three days and be in any kind of fighting condition.

Use the terrain to your advantage.

they won't be walking anywhere - they'll take off in their 35mpg cruiser and keep driving & driving & driving - getting off tracked to smaller & smaller roads until they are driving a goat path in someone's backfield ....

you're going to have people everywhere - I don't care if you have a church or townhall in the middle of freaking no-place >>> you'll have the local lite-hearted wanting to shelter handfuls of stragglers that showed up ....
 
they won't be walking anywhere - they'll take off in their 35mpg cruiser and keep driving & driving & driving - getting off tracked to smaller & smaller roads until they are driving a goat path in someone's backfield ....

you're going to have people everywhere - I don't care if you have a church or townhall in the middle of freaking no-place >>> you'll have the local lite-hearted wanting to shelter handfuls of stragglers that showed up ....
where will they get the fuel? filling stations will be empty within 24 hours and over here everyone drives on empty so even siphoning fuel wont get them much.
 

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