The Golden Horde

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Illini Warrior

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wouldn't get alllll overwrought over Rawle's "Golden Horde" theory >>> blown wayyyyyyyyy out of reality ....

unless the SHTF is obvious like a natural disaster like a hurricane or there's a definite threat like a nuke strike >>>> people aren't moving that eazy - FEMA is going to be a major factor here ....

doesn't mean there won't be grid locked roads - they get blocked daily with just the regular job commute ...

if your concern is because you intend to bug out - better be out in front of the wave that will result - don't be riding it if at all possible - absolutely don't be the hapless lot following up days & weeks later >>>> just read up on hurricane evac "action after reports" - that's with no immediate threat, services still available and law & order in place ....

if you're concerned about the Wave coming your way - be concerned - it'll be desperate sheeple running on "Empty" on the resources gauge - and they'll be showing up just about everywhere ....
 

MOS0231

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I have pondered on this one myself more than a few occasions.

First problem is how many of those in the city will recognize when it is time to "Head for the hills!"?
Humans tend to stay where they feel safe, where it is familiar, where they are comfortable.
That is their current home.
They might stay there for a period of time hoping for things to return to normal (e.g. Texas in the recent Arctic blast), and then when their supplies are running out, then and only then is when they might start to think of heading for the hills.
But by then is it too late?
If the JIT/BAU system has failed, what fuel you got in the tank is the fuel you got in the tank is it, do you chance it on the open road and hope when you are on E, you can find a gas station that is open and in operation, and accpeting CC, debit or even cash? Or have the locals occupied it for their use, and will charge you an AR15, a few hundred rounds and an hour with your spouse, or child or even you (You sure got a purtty mouth!) for them and their friends?
Then, there is, "Where do they go?" (i.e. The Golden Horde) Where are the resources for food and water? How many in NYC say to themselves, "Hey! I got a great idea! Instead of going South where, with out the grid, the climate is more gentle, the growing seasons longer, lets turn North where they get 20ft or more of snow, and single digit or even negative digits are not uncommon!"
Do not see that happening.
Could we see a mass migration of Americans to those middle latitudes where life is more comfortable with out electricity, longer growing season, and where water is abundant?
I think that is more likely.
But what about those who live in those areas? Are they just going to welcome The Golden Horde with open arms and expectations to feed and house them? Or are they going to take precautions to stop The Horde?
Contrary to what Hollywood would have you believe, you do not need TNT to drop a bridge.
Anti-tank traps can apply to lifted, big tires 4x4s too. Heck, a pile of logs can stop a minivan, RV, and most cars.
Get out in a rural area, I know of a few pave loaders, back hoes, tractors, that can do the job in an hour or two.
Then The Golden Horde is on foot. If you know anything about economics and logistics that is a hard forced march. Not going far. And they are not at their best. They might be malnourished, dehydrated, and not at maximum combat capacity.
 

Schattentarn

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Exactly. I did not know it had a name (Golden Hoard) but this is always my primary concern. What is the range of the Hoard? Three days walking? Three days without water? Seven days without food? Can the roads be blocked and monitored in your bug out location? A chain saw will fix this in a heavily wooded area but what about other areas? Manning checkpoints is going to be everything. Not admitting the Hoard is essential to your survival and it is your survival which should be your primary concern.

After a period of time, maybe a week, maybe two, law enforcement will have fled the cities. Gangs will now govern the cities. If you have not fled the city after some short period of time, you will never be able to do so because your resources will be gone. You will be trapped in the cities as slaves to the gang.

So, in my view, it is the first wave of refugees out of the cities which will be the problem. The further you are from a major city the better off you are.
 

Brent S

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It was interesting to me that California is about 1/3 blue in the map of likely places to go to shit first. Kind of figured California would be one of the worst places to be in shtf though.
 

Helen Back

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It was interesting to me that California is about 1/3 blue in the map of likely places to go to shit first. Kind of figured California would be one of the worst places to be in shtf though.

I noted that as well. It's a large state, and most of the people live on the coast, or on the Southern border. I would not want to be anywhere near those places if, like the guy said, even 10% decided to get out. My brother (special ops and 27 years in) once told me to be at least 8 miles off the hwy system, because military studies have shown that most people won't go off the hwy more than 5-6 miles looking for your food/water/butt.
 

bigpaul

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the British population will "shelter in place", we do not have a history of evacuating not even in times of war.
unless its a huge bomb or something immediate they wont know something is wrong until its too late, by which time the stores will be empty and the power grid will be down.
 

grayghost668

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I am not to worried about it,,,,if they do show up this is the last place to come for a hand out,,,,,all they will get is a generous helping of hot lead
 

Illini Warrior

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I'd be more worried about an organized "invasion" of your area by a FED/FEMA evac than by a random bunch of sheeple that might & might not come your way - much less stay ....

if you read about the FEMA lack of success and especially their failures during Katrina - you have your basis of concern ....

FEMA planning calls for mass evac using bulk transit to large venue locations outside the critical area - also the distribution of evac people into the communities in those same areas - a community gets "X" number to fend for based on their resident population >> IE: - 3,000 count population gets 200 people to house & feed ...

the larger venues could get 1,000s dropped off - sports stadiums, fairgrounds, colleges, convention centers, industrial parks, ect ect >>>> 1,000s depending on FEMA to supply them thru a possible nationwide/planetary disaster - consider Katrina that involved a few states and had a roll-up of 7-10 days to prepare ....

What happens when that 10,000 down the road doesn't get fed for a week? - FEMA personnel bugged out - animals are eating the weak >> think NOLA SuperDome ....
 

MOS0231

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It was interesting to me that California is about 1/3 blue in the map of likely places to go to shit first. Kind of figured California would be one of the worst places to be in shtf though.
Unfortunately, CA has more than a few hits against it.
Water supplies come from a long way off.
They are the biggest importer of electricity, and those transmission lines also come from a long ways off.
Wild fire season has been starting sooner (may even be year round by now), more intense, and lasts longer. Imagine going through that during or after SHTF.
It is a long way, and through a lot of hostile terrain to get to the hills, or go North to the PNW. I know a guy who has a BOL in the Sierra Nevada mountains. It is like a three and a half hour drive, under normal conditions. No back roads to get there (terrain).
 

bigpaul

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we dont have the equivalent of Fema in the UK and the British govt only get into motion long after an event has happened and thats too little too late.
in a TEOTWAWKI situation we dont have enough troops or Police to control the whole of the country, they may be able to control one or two big cities(even that is debateable) but rural areas like mine will just be left to get on with things as best we can.
 

Schattentarn

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the British population will "shelter in place", we do not have a history of evacuating not even in times of war.
unless its a huge bomb or something immediate they wont know something is wrong until its too late, by which time the stores will be empty and the power grid will be down.
Children evacuated London during the Blitz. The Royal Family stayed and won praise. London today is much different from those times and many Londoners probably do not share traditional British "stiff upper lip" values. Those same people cut and ran out of Syria when things got tough. How is your Arabic?
 

bigpaul

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Children were only evacuated for a few months from London during the height of the blitz, some came back even quicker than that.
London its true has many non british communities but how far will they go from their own people? safety in numbers I think they called it, many have left already because of the pandemic. ethnic communities suffer the worst casualties from Covid 19.
its a VERY long walk from London to where I live and the road system is not the same as in america, especially once off the main highways.
 

Disturbed1970

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True SHTF scenario, the number of deaths would be staggering. Hordes would be even more at risk for several of the threats

What time of year does this occur? Winter and Summer both have risks associated with them - Winter probably being the worst. Not just deaths from cold, but a lack of anything growing, animals being laid up, roads and paths being more treacherous, etc.

Lack of medical care means minor injuries can kill. Minor illnesses can morph into deadly diseases.

Lack of abundant, clean water. Boiling doesn't fix everything

A Horde requires vast resources to maintain. There's a reason professionals study logistics. How much fuel, food, water does it take to keep a large group at fighting strength, and where are you going to find those resources as you get farther from cities? How are you transporting the resources needed to simply move a Horde, and how do you know there are resources to sustain/restock it where you are going?

The US is geographically huge, with large swaths being sparsely populated, and other parts only compounding all of the problems mentioned above (how do you get a Horde through the terrain you would need to traverse to get to SW Texas, for example? Better yet, why would a Horde feel the need to head to SW Texas?)

Hollywood glosses over that huge factor. Why would a Horde be where you are? Are you right on a highway that leads someplace that Horde might want to go? If not, by the time a Horde might get to you, lack of resources and die off will have taken it far below Horde-level.
 

Proud Prepper

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A Hoarde will have an extremely high attrition rate in reletivly short time. If your not in a city or well away from a possible path of the hoerde you will likely be unaffected.
 

MOS0231

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True SHTF scenario, the number of deaths would be staggering. Hordes would be even more at risk for several of the threats

What time of year does this occur? Winter and Summer both have risks associated with them - Winter probably being the worst. Not just deaths from cold, but a lack of anything growing, animals being laid up, roads and paths being more treacherous, etc.

Lack of medical care means minor injuries can kill. Minor illnesses can morph into deadly diseases.

Lack of abundant, clean water. Boiling doesn't fix everything

A Horde requires vast resources to maintain. There's a reason professionals study logistics. How much fuel, food, water does it take to keep a large group at fighting strength, and where are you going to find those resources as you get farther from cities? How are you transporting the resources needed to simply move a Horde, and how do you know there are resources to sustain/restock it where you are going?

The US is geographically huge, with large swaths being sparsely populated, and other parts only compounding all of the problems mentioned above (how do you get a Horde through the terrain you would need to traverse to get to SW Texas, for example? Better yet, why would a Horde feel the need to head to SW Texas?)

Hollywood glosses over that huge factor. Why would a Horde be where you are? Are you right on a highway that leads someplace that Horde might want to go? If not, by the time a Horde might get to you, lack of resources and die off will have taken it far below Horde-level.
Well said and outstanding post.

I have noted more than a few preppers, mostly survivalists think when SHTF it will be under their ideal conditions.
Or by some miracle they will find fuel along the way to get them to those far off rural areas.

We saw the results of lack of clean water in Afghanistan with cholera outbreaks. Took IV saline hydration solutions to save a few thousands of people.

"There's a reason professionals study logistics."
That right there.
 

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