How long would you last?

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Silent Earth

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A little scenario to consider your own response.
How long would you last?
Lets say an Europe wide health problem comes to pass, perhaps a viral out bacterial disease outbreak that spreads very fast and has a very high mortality rate, Its not airborne just spread by close proximity and via touch etc.
So the government orders everyone to stay at home until the outbreak burns itself out, they estimate two weeks of everyone facing self imposed confinement.
By the end of week one the power supplies fail, not long after the gas and water systems fail, you are in the dark without utilities no gas, electricity, running water or sewage systems.
That means no refrigeration, telephones, waste disposal, elevators, street lights, no central heating etc as well
But after two weeks its still not safe to come out, new cases of infection keep popping up in various places killing anyone infected.
So it turns out that the longer you can remain in isolation ( IE INDOORS in the towns and cities or not venturing outside your gardens if you like in rural areas not close to neighbours)
HOW LONG CAN YOU SUSTAIN YOUR FAMILY remaining in location entirely self sufficient because venturing out risks death from infection or being shop by troops enforcing the lock down?
 

jimLE

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we'd deffently last for the two weeks.i have enough jugs and bottles that i can fill up to begin with.and then refill when emptied untill there's no running water.(still need a water bladder for the tub.and of course,we'd eat and drink whats in the refrigerate and freezer first.we have propane,so cooking wont be a issue untill it runs out.i still need a grill for firewood thoe..you deffently got me to thinking about how much food supplies i have.im thinking,2 to maybe up to 4 months of food.so chances are,we'll survive the situation,as long as the neighbors,military,and everyone else keeps their distance,to leaving us well enough alone.
 

Brent S

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I like to think I could last 6 months or more. With most things I could, but there are always some unexpected things that come up. Dairy products are something I'm weak on. Also what if you need to see a doctor? Maybe wife is on meds that she couldn't do without. This is a good scenario to really think about to see what it is that you could work on. I could generate electricity for more than three weeks straight, but considering the possibility of a major disruption to our infrastructure, I would conserve the fuel for mostly welding or to run tools when needed. The canned goods would last months, and the garden would continue supplying food and help replenish the pantry, but what about when you run out of seeds? Some of the plants like beans, potatoes and tomatoes are easy to get seeds from, but many are not and depend on being able to buy them. Things like sugar, salt, flour etc. would run low for most of us in a short period of time. I'm comfortable with a month even, but considering a long term disruption would take a lot more preparation.
 

Silent Earth

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8 months without ever opening the exterior doors even in a grid down, water food basic hygiene taken care of though the fear is a wild land fire etc.. amongst this crises then it falls back to 'no choice is no choice' ya a paradox.
Time to cut back the trees around the hacienda a bit amigo.
 

Silent Earth

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I think a disease outbreak / pandemic is probably the major and most likely threat we face, and these outbreaks can easily last 2 months before they peak when counter measures are used. (though Zeka is bucking the trend, and anti mosquito initiative is going to be likely for southern preppers).

BUT if the forecast " Big one" hits the US west coast happens, or the New Madrid cripples the middle bit of CONUS with your countries bad federal record on immediate response to major disasters ( Andrew, Katrina etc) and your much higher population levels especially among the high population densities of the migrant communities, I reckon the chance of a major breakdown in public health leading to a disease or diseases outbreak is almost certain. same criteria is likely in the UK because our NHS is running at capacity 24/7/365 now and its right for total collapse..

Considerations as to what you may need to survive a quarantine
HAVING sufficient supplies ( Food, water, fuel, script medicines, off grid gas / electricity, rubbish bags, extra Vitamins etc)
STORING your supplies (In and around home SECURELY and out of Sight)
KEEPING your supplies (from pests, critters, loss through fire, flood, building collapse, life expired, poor storage techniques etc)
PROTECTING your supplies (Looters, Scroungers, Armed Thieves, Govt confiscation etc)
ACCESSING extra reserves ( from caches, hidden stores, salvage, water capture, felling trees for firewood etc)
PLANNING & CONTROLLING (Using media and Intel to work out how long you must stay indoors for as the crisis proceeds, rationing, growing extra, listing to AM/FM , HAM, broadcasts etc to see if new cases are announced etc)
 

Silent Bob

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The question of the day is "Why do we prep?". 6-8 months is not unrealistic. Even though my family I think would eventually lose their appetite with the same mundane food items without some augmentation of fresh fruit and vegetables, dairy...they would manage.

California and places that experience those type of events are quite aware of the causalities and public health issues that will befall that area, hence why they are the best trained when it comes to quakes and wildfires in the country. I am not taking away EM folks that live in the NWA, but statistically, they have more events than any other state in the union. As I stated in another forum post, the rise of wildfires have risen alarmingly. See Maverick's post regarding what he has done to his home to make it less wildfire prone. My father's family lives in the Adirondacks, it is as heavily wooded as Mavericks and one thing my family has learned, doesn't matter how much you cut back the tree line, embers fly several miles and therefore possibly the best you can consider is to make an effort to clean away dead brush and other optimal combustible material that hastens a wildfire's ability to gain momentum. We even do this in Texas, because while we do not have large trees, the shrubs and low trees like Mesquite are very good fuel sources and combining this with high temperatures, low humidity and typical 40 mph winds we have in the Texas, is the reason why our firefighters are kept busy so much. Yes and the bulk of these are simple citizen's volunteering as firefighters in their community. Ever heard of West, Texas, its on the 35 just outside Texas, these were the heroes who died fighting at a combustible plant.

I think their were several things that came from Hurricane Andrew that we learned from, which has been used as a template for many hurricane events afterward and even used during Katrina. 1st Lesson, evacuation times are actually moved up on time line. I know that the Florida Emergency Management system was overhauled after Andrew. I've placed the after-action report. 2) Active Duty forces were used in the recovery stage of the event (not well done by any standard, but certainly identified key elemental issues on how active military forces would be used in later events). Roadway management, as N.R. stated in his early forum thread, even prep families that evacuated were caught in traffic, this while not great at any standards have improved, granted I've not evacuated in Florida peninsula, I've evacuated my family from Hurlburt without to much discomfiture. As for Katrina, I'd bet you any money, if you would ask those who evacuated New Orleans for Houston and other parts of South and Southwest, they evacuated to places near Louisiana because of the size of the hurricane. No one, not federal, state or local official's expected that the dykes would break and a major catastrophe would engulf a city. Lastly, those who stayed behind, made a decision, they decided to bug-in, despite being asked to leave and yes, many of those who stayed were not preppers.

How do I know this, well because I was at Homestead (military) one day after Andrew made landfall and I was sitting in Baton Rouge (Red Cross) when Katrina made land-fall. I know for a fact, places like Kenner and other non-flooded areas of New Orleans were not expecting the magnitude, stripped resources quickly, but the professionalism I saw of those who were involved was beyond reproach. I still have friends that I made in Saint Bernard Parish simply because the few volunteers that were with me, took the chance of doing some off-route excursions to get supplies into them. I am an adopted son of good hardworking and honest people of Louisiana, so while I know people like to point out how screwed up Katrina was, we learned a great deal from this event also.

N.R. no offense made to you, but your National medical system is far more crippled than our insurance driven private enterprise system. I've gotten medical care in England, I won't tell you how long it took me to get six stitches in my chin, but I could have done the stitches myself in the mirror. In fact, I was prepared to do so, had it not been for my commanding British officer who ordered to get the medical care in the first place. Even today, the scar that is left, told me that the practitioner needed to go back to medical school as it was the worst stitch job I have ever experienced. Even my other would sights are cosmetically better. Also being a medic and nurse, having stitched countless wounds, I think I could have done better with one hand tied to my back.

Which allows me to end this post...and my question. Why do we Prep? We all have our own reasons, but for me, it is simple, I've invested my life into my children, money, sweat, fear and tears. I'd like to think that my efforts will protect them or at least give them a standing chance in any event. Let's face it, if everyone would prep,, which the federal government has more or less advocated for years through their PSA messages, we'd be better off and possible be more resilient.

Good preps to all,

SB
 
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Silent Earth

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Excellent appraisal bob, Our NHS is buggered thats common knowledge now, as for this well considered point. " The question of the day is "Why do we prep?". 6-8 months is not unrealistic. Even though my family I think would eventually lose their appetite with the same mundane food items without some augmentation of fresh fruit and vegetables, dairy...they would manage. "" This is why more and more preppers even Apartment preppers are converting ornamental gardens and patios, and yards and even balconies into growing only edibles. Maters, taters, peas, beans, olives, peppers, fruits, herbs ANYTHING absolutely anything that can provide greens and variation to our diets. If you cannot eat it dont plant it.
 

Silent Bob

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You did hit an area that I don't touch much, but love as a hobby. Farming, I guess as a kid, I didn't think it was fun, milking cows, bringing in the hay or harvesting the corn or sunflower seeds, not to mention other garden items grown in the back yard, but I guess it goes back to the genes of my family, all those who were in the military, simply yearned to farm again. I guess that affliction was passed on to me. I have a small patch garden, another that sits under the window sill, a hydroponic set up and one of those do it yourself green houses that is attached to the shed. In the winter, we move in the small lemon tree and orange tree. They simply don't do well with the frost. The apple and pear trees do really well and the peach trees both give so much fruit that I often am dropping them off at the neighbor. Not bad considering the home in a modern subdivision. We manage during the summer, simply to buy only those fruit and vegetables that are very hard to get or grow. I don't grow corn, it simply as a rule is a pain in the butt for me and takes up way to much space. So that is one that I have all the seeds and can grow using the three plant theory. Corn, Bean and Squash are what I would raise in that patch...you should all know the story behind that one. So won't explain, if you need to, just ask.

Happy Day all.
 
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jontte

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this one's tough as I have my dog who needs regular visits in the bush ;)
luckily the population density isn't that bad here,maybe/hopefully I could sneak out and back in without any one noticing,if so..then I do have stuff to make a full month without any problems,as I live in a flat,water storage is my main concern.
 

jimLE

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same here jontte.she not only needs her outdoor visits.but she's use to going outside with me,when ever i go outside.pluss my garden can be seen from the road.
 

jontte

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it would be much easier living alone in this scenario,then you could fix your door in a manner it would take some serious tools or more to breach it...
propably I would be foolish enough to venture outdoors with my dog,but I would take a rifle with me...just in case.
 

Silent Earth

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it would be much easier living alone in this scenario,then you could fix your door in a manner it would take some serious tools or more to breach it...
propably I would be foolish enough to venture outdoors with my dog,but I would take a rifle with me...just in case.
I just fitted a new SECURED BY DESIGN COMPOSITE High security door to my house, they are as tough as you can get without fitting steel laminated doors.
 
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Gazrok

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they estimate two weeks of everyone facing self imposed confinement.
By the end of week one the power supplies fail, not long after the gas and water systems fail, you are in the dark without utilities no gas, electricity, running water or sewage systems.
That means no refrigeration, telephones, waste disposal, elevators, street lights, no central heating etc as well
But after two weeks its still not safe to come out, new cases of infection keep popping up in various places killing anyone infected.
If it happened right now....

We have quite a bit of stored water. Certainly enough for a few weeks...but then we also have the well. Would be a pain though, once stored water is done. (bucket brigade). At least until I get a solar water pump.

Same for toilets. We have septic, so just need water to fill the tanks. Though a solar sump pump would be nice. Would still last us fine for a few weeks though...even without that.

For protein, we'd have plenty of eggs. Always have about 5 dozen or so, and the hens produce about 6-8 eggs a day. Some limited things we grow too, but we're just starting at that.
 

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