Hindenburg Omen

[DrHenley]

I'm starting to hear a lot of chatter about the Hindenburg Omen. (named after the ill-fated German airship)

There is a set of technical criteria, but basically the theory is that in a healthy market, a large number of stocks can hit year highs or year lows, but not both within a short period. Having both year highs and year lows close together indicates a very unhealthy market and portends a stock market crash. Every crash since 1985 has been preceded by Hindenburg events.

In order to to eliminate false positives, the technical criteria have to be met three times in a row within a month.

The technical criteria were met six times in August of this year, in two groups of three.

 

[12starsurvival]

I'm starting to hear a lot of chatter about the Hindenburg Omen. (named after the ill-fated German airship)

There is a set of technical criteria, but basically the theory is that in a healthy market, a large number of stocks can hit year highs or year lows, but not both within a short period. Having both year highs and year lows close together indicates a very unhealthy market and portends a stock market crash. Every crash since 1985 has been preceded by Hindenburg events.

In order to to eliminate false positives, the technical criteria have to be met three times in a row within a month.

The technical criteria were met six times in August of this year, in two groups of three.

Have you looked into how many times that the criteria is met, but have no significant negative effects. I have not looked into it at all, but was curious.

 

[DrHenley]

The criteria don't guarantee a crash, they just indicate an unhealthy market that is ripe for a crash. They have been met several times this year, but last month was unusual because of the two clusters of three incidents.

 

[12starsurvival]

Interesting, thank you!

 

[MahoganyEclipse]

Well thats just great... (here we go again, me thinks)