Fallout from COVID-19

[DrHenley]

I started this thread to separate discussions of the ramifications of the epidemic from the epidemic itself.
Some just occurred to me...
We have all wondered about what would happen if the supply of goods from China were cut off. And to some extent we are started to see an example of that. But what is different from the expected scenario is that the demand for goods from China has taken a nosedive due to concerns over product safety, namely the fear that goods from China could be contaminated by the SARS-COV-2 Virus.

In other words, people can't get their normal products from China, but then people don't WANT products from China. So both supply and demand have both gone down simultaneously rather than just the supply.

Another fallout from this is the outcry in China over the government's handling of the crisis. Hashtag "I want freedom of speech" was trending on China social media for several hours before the censors could suppress it. There is widespread anger at the government, especially in Hubei Province. And those people on lockdown in Hubei have nothing to do so they are spending a lot of time on social media and they are talking.

 

[jontte]

well,if this continues for longer time ,we will se a major SALE, on Chinese goods online,they will prolly even pay us to buy.

that protest from Hubei could spread far and wide,despite ChiCom will do all to supress it..

 

[DrHenley]

https://dnyuz.com/2020/02/15/to-tame-coronavirus-mao-style-social-control-blankets-china/
To Tame Coronavirus, Mao-Style Social Control Blankets China

Li Jing, 40, an associate professor of sociology at Zhejiang University in the eastern city of Hangzhou, was almost barred from taking her husband to a hospital recently after he choked on a fish bone during dinner. The reason? Her neighborhood allows only one person per family to leave the house, every other day.
“Once the epidemic was disclosed, the central government put huge pressure on local officials,” Professor Li said. “That triggered competition between regions, and local governments turned from overly conservative to radical.”
“Even when the situation is relieved or if the mortality rate turns out not to be high, the government machine is unable to change direction or tune down,” she added.
China’s prevention efforts are being led by its myriad neighborhood committees, which typically serve as a go-between for residents and the local authorities. Supporting them is the government’s “grid management” system, which divides the country into tiny sections and assigns people to watch over each, ensuring a tight grip over a large population.​

 

[Maverick]

We will see a short term dip, but, if western manufactures quietly start pulling out of china it's china that's going to be hurt, not the West per say, we may see higher prices because of it. Nissan stopped manufacturing in Japan because Nissan parts factory was shut down in china. I know the electric car companies in the West caused delays in production, we probably going to see companies diversifying or relocating it's manufacturing process.

We are probably going to see diversifying of the pharmaceuticals the same for medical equipment. In the end it may be good but in the mean time it's probably going to be painful in the pocketbook.

Also, the WHO keeps praising communist china government, I think that toe-walking with china is going to hurt the WHOs credibility with some governments. The CDC acted quickly when the virus came to light and the WHO publicly criticized the US right after china did on the US virus response.

Majority of the fallout good and bad is something we ain't going to see or hear about.

 

[Proud Prepper]

The shortages will happen, they will cause a domino effect. Get whatever you think you will need for the next year now.

 

[tmttactical]

I started shifting my buying habits a couple of years ago. Anytime I could buy American, I did. I now look for the made in America label. I can't always find an American product if the wanted price range but it is getting better.

 

[BillMasen]

We will see a short term dip, but, if western manufactures quietly start pulling out of china it's china that's going to be hurt, not the West per say, we may see higher prices because of it. Nissan stopped manufacturing in Japan because Nissan parts factory was shut down in china. I know the electric car companies in the West caused delays in production, we probably going to see companies diversifying or relocating it's manufacturing process.

We are probably going to see diversifying of the pharmaceuticals the same for medical equipment. In the end it may be good but in the mean time it's probably going to be painful in the pocketbook.

Also, the WHO keeps praising communist china government, I think that toe-walking with china is going to hurt the WHOs credibility with some governments. The CDC acted quickly when the virus came to light and the WHO publicly criticized the US right after china did on the US virus response.

Majority of the fallout good and bad is something we ain't going to see or hear about.

Samsung have been forced to fly componants into Vietnam from China to built their electronic devices because of the factory closures and Quarantine, they may not go back ( BBC worklife show)

 

[GaRp58]

Johnny get your gun. I'm glad we have local produce and buy fresh from them every Wed. and Sat. 200 meteres from here I can buy potatoes. 50 meters- meats and eggs. 35 meters away is a bakery. The nearby farms grow everything from beef, chicken, sheep and pork, to eggs, veggies and fruits/nuts. Gotta get more TP tho...GP

 

[DrHenley]

Theory that the virus came from the biolab is gaining traction:

 

[BillMasen]

This is getting EXACTLY like the SCIFI story SURVIVORS by Terry Nation ( the inventor of the Daleks) which starts with an engineered flu type virus escaping from an Asian labority and being spread by air passengers around the world within days, And as within the book and TV series it was covered up by the authorities.

 

[TexasFreedom]

I woke up, and this thought hit me out of the blue.

I've said quite a while ago that democrats want to crater the US economy to make Trump look bad to steal the election. Well... this coronavirus could do that. No, it WILL do that to the whole world's economy (China more than others, but included). Ford can't make cars without parts from China. HP can't sell computers with parts from China. People here are going to get laid off when materials stop. It is going to hurt our economy.

Now, the Dem's will need to find a way to blame Trump for this, but with the media's collusion, they'll do it. And there is a 2-month delay from China shutting down to arrivals in factories here. And another month or so for residual materials in stock right now. So 3-4 months delay from now, May-June. Then 5 months of hardship going into the election. This right here might be the earliest 'October Surprise' we've seen.

Another comment. Talked with a buddy at a big company yesterday. All their people left China weeks ago, and it basically takes the CEO's signature for anyone to go there right now (of course, who would take that trip?). But their China offices are all 100% shut down. I think he mentioned Shanghai. He said any factories in China now have to apply to the gov't to open back up and return to work. Imagine how long this 'approval' process is going to take? Hard clamp-downs, nation wide. Al the other cities who sent their doctors to die in Wuhan now really need those doctors back home. It's ugly, really ugly.

 

[TexasFreedom]

Related, the fallout within China is going to be huge. Here's another woman saying things that would get her locked up for life normally.
https://www.citizenfreepress.com/br...out-china-is-hiding-the-truth-from-the-world/

 

[bigpaul]

I have bought a lot of stuff in the past from China, have never had a problem with the quality but the main problem was always the length of time it took to ship and deliver anything, if I could find a British supplier then I bought from them instead, some stuff was only available from China.
I think that following the covid 19 outbreak less and less people will be ordering from China.

 

[Maverick]

Coronavirus: Nearly 80% of American Factories in Shanghai Say They Lack Workers

Here is what the American Chamber of Commerce’s survey, released Monday, found:

48% of companies report their global operations are already impacted by the shutdown
78% of companies do not have sufficient staff to run a full production line
41% of companies say a lack of staff is their biggest challenge in the next 2-4 weeks; 30% of companies say logistics issues will be their biggest concern
Over the next few months, 58% of companies expect demand for their output to be lower than normal
38% of companies do not have sufficient masks/other supplies to protect their staff from coronavirus infection
35% of companies ranked a clearer explanation of requirements as the most important thing government officials could do to speed up factory opening approvals

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/02/17/shanghai-supply-chain-coronavirus/

 

[Maverick]

Stocks fall as Apple warning raises China virus concerns
The maker of iPhones said it will fall short of its revenue forecasts in the fiscal second quarter because of production problems in China
https://www.breitbart.com/news/stocks-fall-as-apple-warning-raises-china-virus-concerns/

Foreign firms struggle to resume operations in virus-hit China
Beijing (AFP) – Foreign firms are struggling to resume work in virus-hit China as they face disrupted supply chains, rising inventory and quarantine rules meant to contain the deadly epidemic, the EU chamber of commerce said Tuesday.
https://www.breitbart.com/news/foreign-firms-struggle-to-resume-operations-in-virus-hit-china/

Additional info

What Apple, Hilton and other U.S. companies are saying about the coronavirus outbreak
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...s-are-saying-about-the-coronavirus-2020-02-18

https://www.theblaze.com/news/apple...eel-the-effect-of-coronavirus-spread-in-china

Of the 364 companies that have held Q4 earnings calls, 138 cited the term “coronavirus” during the call, and about 25% of those included some impact from the coronavirus or modified guidance due to the virus, according to FactSet.

This will eventually end badly. I have never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now," Scott Minerd, global CIO of Guggenheim Investments, writes in a note. "The cognitive dissonance in the credit market is stunning."
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-g...ina-24da74a5-c824-4c79-a8c7-220213d28824.html

Photos: China’s City Streets Empty as Workers Avoid Coronavirus
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020...y-streets-empty-as-workers-avoid-coronavirus/

Bright side

Samsung Positioned to Profit from Apple’s Coronavirus Production Woes
A recent report claims that Samsung Electronics could benefit massively from Apple’s manufacturing problems in China caused by the coronavirus spreading throughout the country. Apple’s iPhone production relies heavily on China, while Samsung has distributed its production facilities throughout Asia.
https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2020...ofit-from-apples-coronavirus-production-woes/

 

[DrHenley]

We are already seeing the effects on the Pharmaceutical Industry. There is a prescription drug I take that is out all over town. I could only get 4 pills last week. Today I told the girl at the pharmacy "I'm afraid that this is just the tip of the iceberg." She found 18 pills at another location, so I drove across town and got them. (I didn't tell her I have a backup supply in the freezer )

https://www.wired.com/story/the-coronavirus-is-a-threat-to-the-global-drug-supply/
The Coronavirus Is a Threat to the Global Drug Supply

The world's pharmaceutical supply chain is in danger as the virus spreads across China and jeopardizes travel and trade.​

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/coronavirus-epicentre-hubei/
Coronavirus epicentre Hubei has 42 pharma contract manufacturing facilities

According to the WHO, about 74% of Covid-19 infections diagnosed in China are in Hubei province as of February 8, 2020. The resulting epidemic has led the Chinese government to impose a curfew on Hubei, and to isolate the entire province from the rest of China, bringing the potential for long-term economic damage if the spread of the virus is not halted in China, we previously reported (“Coronavirus’s Impact on Hubei’s Pharma Manufacturing Activity Is Temporary, Says Local CEO,” GlobalData PharmSource, February 2020).​

Hubei’s 42 pharma contract manufacturing facilities are unfortunately concentrated in Wuhan, Hubei’s capital and the center of the outbreak. International pharma companies and CMOs such as Puracap Pharmaceutical LLC (Piscataway, NJ, US), Fresenius Kabi AG (Hessen, Germany), and Granules India Ltd (Hyderabad, Telangana) have manufacturing facilities in Hubei. ​

 

[DrHenley]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/amid-c...doors-to-china-i-feel-so-isolated-11582060811
Amid Coronavirus, the World Closes Its Doors to China: ‘I Feel So Isolated’

Fearing the contagious coronavirus, the world has severed many links to China. More than 30 airlines have suspended China service, while a 78-nation matrix of rules and quarantines from the U.S. to Singapore have all but banned Chinese travelers from foreign soil. As of Tuesday, the virus has sickened more than 73,000 and killed 1,853, according to the World Health Organization.
Watching the drawbridges go up is a jolt to China’s masses of travelers, including families on holiday, students studying abroad, globe-trotting lawyers, financiers and art dealers, such as Ms. Sun. Their livelihoods are impacted, and egos bruised.
The checks on its people undermine core Chinese government ambitions to position the country at the center of global diplomacy, commerce and culture. They threaten its export deals, convention business and efforts to position its modern airports as global transit points.

 

[DrHenley]

https://www.ecommercebytes.com/C/abblog/blog.pl?/comments/2020/2/1581173079.html/1/0
Amazon Warns Sellers About Coronavirus

Amazon warned sellers about the coronavirus and its possible impact on their business operations. The warning came after Reuters (via Yahoo) published the article, "Lifeblood of Amazon merchants threatened as coronavirus infects Chinese workers" in which it wrote, "Amazon.com Inc sellers are bracing for product shortages as Chinese workers - worried about the fast-spreading coronavirus - may be unable or unwilling to return to idled factories."
Amazon posted the following message on the Amazon Seller Central portal on Friday evening:
Important notification regarding impacts of the Novel Coronavirus
We are aware that the Novel Coronavirus and related actions are impacting millions of individuals around the world.
If your business operations may be impacted, we recommend taking precautions to protect your Amazon seller account health. These precautions may include canceling previously placed orders that you are no longer able to fulfill, placing your account in vacation status, or taking additional steps to manage your inventory. You can learn more on relevant Help pages in Seller Central:
- Order cancellations
- Listing status for vacations, holidays, and other absences
- Update your listings from the Manage Inventory page
If your performance metrics have been impacted by this event, please include a brief description of how your business was impacted when you respond to the relevant performance notification in Seller Central. We will consider this unforeseen event when we evaluate your account's recent performance.

 

[tmttactical]

The "Just In Time" eggs in one basket concept is coming back to haunt. I think the silver lining in this dark cloud, is that USA manufacturing is going to start growing again.

 

[bigpaul]

following Brexit and with the coronavirus we here need a new "buy British" campaign.