Currency/money after TSHTF

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DrHenley

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Different scale Pooky. They show exactly the same thing, except mine starts Dec 2017, yours starts Jan 2019.
Mine is on a scale from 0 to 20,000, yours is on a scale from 2400 to 3000 (which makes changes look larger than when viewed on the larger scale).

They both end up around 3000.

 
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pooky2483

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Different scale Pooky. They show exactly the same thing, except mine starts Dec 2017, yours starts Jan 2019.
Mine is on a scale from 0 to 20,000, yours is on a scale from 2400 to 3000 (which makes changes look larger than when viewed on the larger scale).

They both end up around 3000.
Oops. My bad, I'll go sit on the naughty step for an hour ;-)
 

DrHenley

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This is an excellent example of how the Climate Change fanatics use climate data, BTW. They pick a scale that makes things look exaggerated. But when look at the bigger picture, it shows something entirely different.

(emphasis on "fanatics" I'm not saying all climate scientists are fanatics)
 

FFairfax

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I didn't see anyone else take a crack at the first question, about why an ounce of silver costs different prices depending on the coin/round involved, so as someone that has invested in silver, I'll give it a go.

Your baseline price for silver (or gold, platinum, palladium, or copper for that matter) is the "spot price". That is the current market value of one troy ounce of the metal in question. At the time that I am writing this, the spot price for silver is currently sitting at $15.51 per ounce. That value will change minute to minute, it is not a stable price. Anything that you pay over spot price is referred to as the "premium". Premiums tend to go up for items that are considered collectible. For example, a generic silver round from the Highland Mint, which carries no face value and cannot be spent as currency, will have a premium of roughly $1.50 to $1.80 an ounce. This is mostly to cover the minting costs, shipping costs, distributor profit margins, etc. By comparison, an American Silver Eagle from the US Mint, which has a designated value as currency (although it's only valued at $1.00, which is ridiculous for an ounce of pure silver), is in higher demand, and is widely collected, and so the premium will be higher (anywhere from $2.50 - $3.50 per ounce, depending on where you buy it). Remember, generally speaking, the more collectible something is, the higher the premium generally will be.

Something to really consider though is that in a SHTF scenario, a treasure trove of 100 ounces of silver or more isn't going to feed you or your family. People likely won't be looking to take it as barter, at least not initially. At least that would be my guess. It's just not practical until some sort of government or order is established and a currency is developed. A lot of people won't know how to value it either...if you watch YouTube videos about it, you'll see some people saying that just 10 ounces of silver could buy an acre of land and a house after some sort of collapse, while other people say that it won't be worth much at all for a long time. Nobody really knows. And if you are stacking silver and gold for a SHTF situation, you will need to think about security, and transportation if you ever have to relocate. 100 ounces of silver or gold gets pretty heavy, and it's going to be bulky and difficult to carry, along with your essential gear.

I hope I helped a bit.
 

Brent S

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I didn't see anyone else take a crack at the first question, about why an ounce of silver costs different prices depending on the coin/round involved, so as someone that has invested in silver, I'll give it a go.

Your baseline price for silver (or gold, platinum, palladium, or copper for that matter) is the "spot price". That is the current market value of one troy ounce of the metal in question. At the time that I am writing this, the spot price for silver is currently sitting at $15.51 per ounce. That value will change minute to minute, it is not a stable price. Anything that you pay over spot price is referred to as the "premium". Premiums tend to go up for items that are considered collectible. For example, a generic silver round from the Highland Mint, which carries no face value and cannot be spent as currency, will have a premium of roughly $1.50 to $1.80 an ounce. This is mostly to cover the minting costs, shipping costs, distributor profit margins, etc. By comparison, an American Silver Eagle from the US Mint, which has a designated value as currency (although it's only valued at $1.00, which is ridiculous for an ounce of pure silver), is in higher demand, and is widely collected, and so the premium will be higher (anywhere from $2.50 - $3.50 per ounce, depending on where you buy it). Remember, generally speaking, the more collectible something is, the higher the premium generally will be.

Something to really consider though is that in a SHTF scenario, a treasure trove of 100 ounces of silver or more isn't going to feed you or your family. People likely won't be looking to take it as barter, at least not initially. At least that would be my guess. It's just not practical until some sort of government or order is established and a currency is developed. A lot of people won't know how to value it either...if you watch YouTube videos about it, you'll see some people saying that just 10 ounces of silver could buy an acre of land and a house after some sort of collapse, while other people say that it won't be worth much at all for a long time. Nobody really knows. And if you are stacking silver and gold for a SHTF situation, you will need to think about security, and transportation if you ever have to relocate. 100 ounces of silver or gold gets pretty heavy, and it's going to be bulky and difficult to carry, along with your essential gear.

I hope I helped a bit.
You really have to be careful about buying gold or silver. Like you said, prices vary a lot. I really like eBay as you can compare prices. Collectible coins, both gold and silver, can have huge premiums. But there are bullion coins out there. Meaning they are really just the value of the metal. I just got a Canadian maple leaf for 17.00 over spot. They have specials all the time, but you have to watch for them. You should also realize that not only is there a premium for buying gold and silver, there is also a premium for selling it. So if you’re doing it for long term then you’re ok, but if you need to sell to cover an emergency, your likely to loose 15 to 20%. I bought some gold coins several years back for 300 an ounce. With today’s price of about 1300 it was a great investment. The reason I’m bringing this up is the chance of gold going up that much again is slim. It’s high now, not at its highest, but high enough to not likely jump like that again. Another thing you pointed out was security. I had all those gold coins stolen. I still believe that gold and silver will always have value, but am pointing out that it’s not 100% safe. I guess nothing is to be honest. I also believe that prepping is all about covering as many bases as you can. So for me at least, I think precious metals have a place in prepping. And even if they aren’t likely to skyrocket and increase your savings, I think they are safe enough to at least hold value and hedge your assets from loss of value.
 

FFairfax

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I definitely agree with your point on selling. I didn't even touch on selling because in a SHTF situation, good luck finding any buyers (in my opinion). But yes, if everything doesn't fall to pieces, and you want to sell, you need to be careful about where and to whom. I deal primarily in silver, so that is where all of my knowledge is when it comes to precious metals. If someone were to buy a roll of American Silver Eagles today (they come in rolls of 20, for those not familiar), you'd need the spot price to jump up roughly 5 dollars per ounce before you'd be able to turn a minimal profit, because all a coin shop is going to give you is spot price when you go in to sell. (Some coin shops might give you 50 cents to a dollar over spot, particularly if you've built a relationship with them over time. But not all will.)

I absolutely agree that it has a place in prepping, depending on what it is you are prepping for. As another poster said, silver and gold have always had value as currency, while our fiat money only has value as long as people believe that it does. But it just depends on the scenario. If things completely fall to pieces, and I have to pack up and go up to the top of a mountain to survive, I'm probably leaving my silver behind. If on the other hand it's the collapse of the dollar, but civil order is maintained (or at least reasonably maintained), then I'll do my best to keep it on hand, so that when a new currency is established, I can transfer some wealth into the new monetary system.
 

DrHenley

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I collected all sorts of silver, but I finally came to the conclusion that the best way to stack silver was with "junk silver coins". That doesn't mean totally worn out coins, those are called "cull silver coins." It means circulated 90% silver U.S. coins with no special collector value. Some are in almost mint condition, some are worn. The reason I think that is the best type of silver to stack is that the coins are instantly recognizable to everyone as "money" and have well established face values to help people decide what they are worth, and won't depend on government backing to have some value. And if you look hard enough, you can find them for not much more than melt prices. You won't be buying houses or land with them, but you can buy small things with them. I'm thinking maybe a cup of coffee for a silver dime, something like that.

Here is some "junk silver"
 

bigpaul

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cash/coin/ silver/gold will be used post SHTF for about a week or two then the looting will start, after that any currency will be useless. better to convert any spare cash you would have to buying food, water, tools and weapons before the collapse occurs.
 

Arcticdude

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I've been buying and collecting gold and silver most of my life. And in all forms; placer gold (fines to nuggets from my mine), gold coins, rounds and bars, pre 64 silver coins, rounds and bars. When buying any precious metal product shop around for the best price. Spot price will always be the same between sellers but the dealer premium can change a lot between sellers. If you live in an area with placer mining consider buying raw gold directly from the miner. Usually you can buy this gold for 80-90% of spot, depending on assay, while nugget gold can bring much more than spot. Do your homework.
Bartering doesn't have to wait just for post SHTF. I've traded a lot of placer gold for stuff I wanted and I've traded 100 ounce silver bars for things too.
Gold, silver and precious stones have always had value throughout history. I think that it's a little foolish to think that it won't have value after SHTF.
Like someone else said; don't put all your investment eggs in one basket. Precious metals and stones are far from my only investments, but they do make a significant portion.
 

DrHenley

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Bigpaul, there is a difference between fiat currency and real money, although in this day and age few people know the difference. Yes, fiat currency will have no value post SHTF. Real money, on the other hand has had value for thousands of years and will continue to have value no matter what happens. If there were no real money in existence post SHTF, it would be invented because trade is too awkward without it. That's what always happens.

In colonial America, Spanish milled dollars became the real money of choice because they were available (thanks to piracy in the Caribbean), and they were reliable. They were inconvenient for making change so people cut them up for change. A fourth of a Spanish milled dollar was worth a fourth of a dollar. Try that with any fiat currency!

This is what a "quarter" looked like in Colonial America.
 

bigpaul

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if you wanted trade after SHTF you could barter, if indeed it was safe to do so.
even if it was I don't think there will be any surplus, especially food, for many years.
and I don't think many would swap Gold which you cant eat for food which you can.
 

FFairfax

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I definitely wouldn't discourage anyone from getting into precious metals. I mean, precious metals are actually what drove me to seek out this forum in the first place, because investing in silver just didn't seem like nearly enough preparation for a bad situation. I will say that I don't think precious metal should be the first, second, or even third priority when starting to prep, though. Some of the money that I've spent on precious metals would have been better spent on stocking up food, ammo, water collection and filtration...things that I will absolutely need in a SHTF situation.
 

Brent S

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I always tell people to start with the basics. Water, food, shelter and security, in this order. Precious metals dosent even make the list, until after you have these things covered. Prepping is like anything else, start with a little and over time you learn and accumulate more and more. I would not advise anyone that just got started to buy 1oz gold coins at 1300bucks a pop. I do think it’s worth while for someone who has the resources and has most of the other preps taken care of though.
 

FFairfax

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Absolutely agree, Brent. I also think gold prices are a little overvalued at the moment...take a look at the gold/silver ratio. A lot of YouTubers seem to think that that means silver is primed to shoot up to close the gap in the ratio a bit. I think it's more likely that gold will drop down, although admittedly I don't have anything to base that on but gut feeling. But that's getting a bit off the topic of the original post.
 

tmttactical

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If President Trump is re-elected in 2020 and the GOP take control of both houses, then I think you will see gold drop. If on the other hand the Dems win the presidency, gold and guns will go through the roof. JM2C
 

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