COVID-19 Mortality Rates

[DrHenley]

COVID-19 Mortality Rates for selected countries/states as of 5 Apr 2020
Mortality rates (deaths/confirmed cases) are all over the board. I thought there would be some correlation between mortality rate and testing rate, but there is not.

Country/State . Mortality Rate Testing Rate(tests per 1 million population)
Italy ........ 12.3% ......... 5291
UK ........... 10.3% ......... 2880
Netherlands ... 9.9% ......... 4401
Spain ......... 9.6% ......... 7593
France ........ 8.7% ......... 3436
Belgium ....... 7.3% ......... 6040
US ............ 2.9% ......... 5302
New York ...... 3.4% ....... 15,408

 

[KateMTx]

COVID-19 Mortality Rates for selected countries/states as of 5 Apr 2020
Mortality rates (deaths/confirmed cases) are all over the board. I thought there would be some correlation between mortality rate and testing rate, but there is not.

Country/State . Mortality Rate Testing Rate(tests per 1 million population)
Italy ........ 12.3% ......... 5291
UK ........... 10.3% ......... 2880
Netherlands ... 9.9% ......... 4401
Spain ......... 9.6% ......... 7593
France ........ 8.7% ......... 3436
Belgium ....... 7.3% ......... 6040
US ............ 2.9% ......... 5302
New York ...... 3.4% ....... 15,408

I would have expected a lower case fatality rate with more testing. But it really is all over the place. New York is testing by far the most, and theirs is lower than a lot of European countries but higher than the US as a whole. I would guess this is due to the overrun of hospitals and lack of equipment?

 

[DrHenley]

COVID-19 Mortality Rates for selected countries/states as of 6 Apr 2020
Mortality rate as defined by deaths/confirmed cases

Country/State . Mortality Rate Testing Rate(tests per 1 million population)
Italy ........ 12.5% ........ 11,937
UK ........... 10.4% ......... 3,726
Netherlands ... 9.9% ......... 4,401
Spain ......... 9.7% ......... 7,593
France ........ 8.7% ......... 3,436
Indonesia ..... 8.3% ............ 48
Belgium ....... 7.8% ......... 6,040
Sweden ........ 6.6% ......... 3,654

US ............ 2.9% ......... 5,558
Kentucky ...... 4.7% ......... 4,227
Washington .... 4.2% ........ 12,052
Michigan ...... 3.9% ......... 4,594
Louisiana ..... 3.7% ........ 12,935
New York ...... 3.6% ........ 15,408
Georgia ....... 3.1% ......... 3,037
Wisconsin ..... 3.0% ......... 4,495

 

[DirtDiva]

COVID-19 Mortality Rates for selected countries/states as of 6 Apr 2020
Mortality rate as defined by deaths/confirmed cases

Country/State . Mortality Rate Testing Rate(tests per 1 million population)
Italy ........ 12.5% ........ 11,937
UK ........... 10.4% ......... 3,726
Netherlands ... 9.9% ......... 4,401
Spain ......... 9.7% ......... 7,593
France ........ 8.7% ......... 3,436
Indonesia ..... 8.3% ........ 11,460
Belgium ....... 7.8% ......... 6,040
Sweden ........ 6.6% ......... 3,654

US ............ 2.9% ......... 5,558
Kentucky ...... 4.7% ......... 4,227
Washington .... 4.2% ........ 12,052
Michigan ...... 3.9% ......... 4,594
Louisiana ..... 3.7% ........ 12,935
New York ...... 3.6% ........ 15,408
Georgia ....... 3.1% ......... 3,037
Wisconsin ..... 3.0% ......... 4,495

Wow Kentucky has a high mortality rate

 

[JackDW]

Kentucky also has a lower testing rate. I suspect that only people who have a serious case were tested. Since only the more serious cases were test, it would result in a higher mortality rates since the minor cases were never tested (so they are not included in any count).

 

[DrHenley]

There is a very strong correlation between ICU Beds per 1 million population and mortality rate.

 

[DrHenley]

Kentucky also has a lower testing rate. I suspect that only people who have a serious case were tested. Since only the more serious cases were test, it would result in a higher mortality rates since the minor cases were never tested (so they are not included in any count).

There is near zero correlation between mortality rate and testing rate. Here is a graph showing the relationship among the states with the highest mortality rates:

 

[DrHenley]

COVID-19 Mortality Rates for selected countries/states as of 7 Apr 2020
Mortality rate as defined by deaths/confirmed cases

Country/State . Mortality Rate Testing Rate(tests per 1 million population)
Italy ........ 12.5% ........ 11,937
Netherlands .. 10.7% ......... 5,053
UK ........... 10.4% ......... 3,726
Spain ......... 9.8% ......... 7,593
France ........ 9.1% ......... 3,436
Belgium ....... 9.1% ......... 6,947
Indonesia ..... 8.1% ............ 48
Sweden ........ 7.6% ......... 5,416

US ............ 3.0% ......... 5,855
Kentucky ...... 5.8% ......... 4,494
Oklahoma ...... 4.6% ......... 3,356
Washington .... 4.5% ........ 12,527
Michigan ...... 4.2% ......... 4,594
Vermont ....... 4.2% ........ 10,613
Louisiana ..... 3.7% ........ 12,935
Georgia ....... 3.9% ......... 3,037
New York ...... 3.6% ........ 16,353
Wisconsin ..... 3.2% ......... 5,021
Ohio .......... 3.2% ......... 4,156

..

 

[DrHenley]

COVID-19 Mortality Rates for selected countries/states as of 8 Apr 2020
Mortality as defined by deaths/confirmed cases
With a few exceptions, mortality rates are climbing across the board.

Country/State..Mortality..Testing Rate(tests per 1 million population)
Italy ........ 12.6% .... 12,495
UK ........... 11.1% ..... 3,929
Netherlands .. 10.9% ..... 5,053
Spain ......... 9.9% ..... 7,593
Belgium ....... 9.6% ..... 6,947
France ........ 9.5% ..... 3,436
Sweden ........ 8.2% ..... 5,416
Indonesia ..... 8.1% ........ 52

USA............ 3.2% ..... 6,336
Kentucky ...... 5.7% ..... 4,866
Oklahoma ...... 4.6% ..... 3,393
Washington .... 4.6% .... 12,582
Michigan ...... 4.5% ..... 5,055
Vermont ....... 4.0% .... 11,407
New York ...... 3.9% .... 17,334
Georgia ....... 3.8% ..... 3,307
Louisiana ..... 3.6% .... 16,008
Wisconsin ..... 3.6% ..... 5,380
Ohio .......... 3.5% ..... 4,367
Indiana ....... 3.4% ..... 4,651

 

[KateMTx]

There is near zero correlation between mortality rate and testing rate. Here is a graph showing the relationship among the states with the highest mortality rates:

I wonder what the correlation is between average population age and fatality rate? I might have to do a little research.

 

[DrHenley]

I wonder what the correlation is between average population age and fatality rate? I might have to do a little research.

I could not find average age, but the correlation between median age and mortality rate is ZERO.
Country...Mortality...Median Age
US ....... 2.9 ...... 38.1
Germany .. 1.5 ...... 47.1
Italy ... 12.5 ...... 45.5
France ... 8.7 ...... 41.5
Spain .... 9.7 ...... 42.7
UK ...... 10.4 ...... 40.5

 

[Prep4Mars]

The numbers aren't much use for two reasons.

Firstly, different countries count deaths differently. Germany, I believe, is only counting those who died of Chinese Flu. Other countries are counting everyone who died with symptoms of Chinese Flu, even if they had other serious health issues.

Secondly, they're only testing for people with the virus, and mostly only testing those who turn up at a hospital. So they know how many people have serious symptoms, but not how many had minor symptoms or none.

The only case I'm aware of where the entire population was tested for the virus and the end results are known is the cruise ship, with around a 1% death rate in an older population than normal for most countries. And they still didn't do antibody testing there, so the actual case rate could have been even higher than the virus tests showed.

 

[DrHenley]

The numbers aren't much use for two reasons.

Firstly, different countries count deaths differently. Germany, I believe, is only counting those who died of Chinese Flu. Other countries are counting everyone who died with symptoms of Chinese Flu, even if they had other serious health issues.

Secondly, they're only testing for people with the virus, and mostly only testing those who turn up at a hospital. So they know how many people have serious symptoms, but not how many had minor symptoms or none.

Yes I know. I said that back in February. But people keep wanting to know the "mortality rate" and I am showing how it changes every day. It didn't mean squat in February, and it still doesn't because of the factors you mentioned and the fact that it's not counting the people who infected that are going to die in the future.

I've said since the beginning that deaths/(deaths+recoveries) is the only statistic that means anything because it uses factors that can actually be counted, even though it is skewed by the fact that it is mostly counting people that are hospitalized, and therefore more serious cases.

But people like numbers so...

 

[KateMTx]

I could not find average age, but the correlation between median age and mortality rate is ZERO.
Country...Mortality...Median Age
US ....... 2.9 ...... 38.1
Germany .. 1.5 ...... 47.1
Italy ... 12.5 ...... 45.5
France ... 8.7 ...... 41.5
Spain .... 9.7 ...... 42.7
UK ...... 10.4 ...... 40.5

I was interested because the mortality rate in Italy has been attributed to an older population. I do think there are many factors involved, and that the numbers we receive are not accurate for a number of reasons as well.

 

[Proud Prepper]

I'm not liking the news about low or no antibodies in 1/3 of recovered patients or the reinfection or reactivation rates. I also dont like the sudden deaths of so called recovered people of covid19.

 

[DrHenley]

I'm not liking the news about low or no antibodies in 1/3 of recovered patients or the reinfection or reactivation rates. I also dont like the sudden deaths of so called recovered people of covid19.

The test only works during the earlier stages, so a lot of people are being cleared that are not recovered yet. Once your upper respiratory system recovers from the initial stages, the virus goes elsewhere, so a nasal swab won't catch it. It also gets into your digestive system and your blood, which aren't being tested.

There is no antibody test available yet here, and I don't trust ANY information coming out of China. I asked some doctors earlier today about it and they think it will be months before the antibody tests are widely available.

 

[Proud Prepper]

The test only works during the earlier stages, so a lot of people are being cleared that are not recovered yet. Once your upper respiratory system recovers from the initial stages, the virus goes elsewhere, so a nasal swab won't catch it. It also gets into your digestive system and your blood, which aren't being tested.

There is no antibody test available yet here, and I don't trust ANY information coming out of China. I asked some doctors earlier today about it and they think it will be some time yet before the antibody tests are widely available.

There are antibody tests they are using in China and in Hong Kong and they are testing blood there also. It will be a while before we have a variety of studies and tests available. The first reports are not promising for her immunity or for a vaccine.

 

[KateMTx]

The test only works during the earlier stages, so a lot of people are being cleared that are not recovered yet. Once your upper respiratory system recovers from the initial stages, the virus goes elsewhere, so a nasal swab won't catch it. It also gets into your digestive system and your blood, which aren't being tested.

There is no antibody test available yet here, and I don't trust ANY information coming out of China. I asked some doctors earlier today about it and they think it will be months before the antibody tests are widely available.

I think there are a lot of "scary" (unknown) things about this virus that we don't understand yet. Hopefully as more research is done there will be more information. But low or no antibodies does indicated no immunity meaning you could catch it again, which suggests a vaccine might not be as effective.

 

[DrHenley]

Here is why I think "recovered patients" are dying.
During the initial stages, your immune system is learning about the virus and gearing up to fight it. Then the virus goes dark for a few days and there are no symptoms, but it is covertly replicating in the ACE2 receptors in your lungs until your immune system recognizes it. And then your immune system unloads everything it's got on it, destroying the ACE2 receptors in the attempt to fight the virus.
That is catastrophic because the ACE2 receptors serve a vital role in maintaining blood pressure (at this point patients begin to experience dangerously high blood pressure spikes)

 

[Petoski]

I am curious about the link between annual income and mortality rate but can't find data on that.