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If we are overdue for a major eruption since 1950, why is there only a 1in 10 chance of it happening in our lifetime?
It's just the way probabilities work. It's counter intuitive to most people.

For example, if you flipped a coin nine times and got tails every time, anyone would say you are overdue to get a head on the next flip. But the probability of getting a head on the tenth flip is still 50% no matter what happened previously.
 

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