When does an 'economic collapse' begin?

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TexasFreedom

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I ask this question because I think we're already there.

But let me explain. Disasters do not happen all of a sudden. Not a single one. That is, IF you know what to look for. Is a hurricane a surprise? Nope, weathermen can tell you where it's going 1-2 weeks ahead of time. War? Nope, the 'sabre rattling' typically goes on for months if not years before open war starts. I'm not saying we have the knowledge/understanding to predict every disaster (ie Earthquakes), but for many we do have the insight. And for others we're just not smart enough to see the signs.

Now back to the economic mess. Is there anyone who doesn't see economic rumblings, dark clouds on the horizon, winds picking up? I would argue that if you look at the specific details, every single signal is there for a massive economic disaster. 5% unemployment? Sure, if you count master degree experienced workers flipping burgers down at McDonalds and discount the 'disenfranchised'. Sometimes you need to dig behind the simple number.

Now to the topic of when does a disaster start. I believe that is when the causes of the disaster reach a level that is not reversible, without divine intervention, and you do not prepare. Welcome aboard, we got there a few years back. There is no single cause but dozens. Loaning money on homes without evidence the mortgage can be paid. Encouraging welfare so 1/4 or 1/3 of the population are 100% leeches on society, and breeding like rabbits. Opening our borders to disease and crime. Federal spending like they are printing money (like that one?). And at the top of the list: denying that God is the source of our blessings.

This is not your normal up & down economy. We passed that decades ago. Let me give another example. When are you the 'victim' of a hurricane? When the weatherman says it's a danger 10 days before impact? When you do nothing to prepare? When 2 days out he says it will 100% hit directly on your house? When you see the first clouds & rain? Or when you drown in the storm? I argue the end was set when you ignored all the warnings. And you were not the victim of the storm, but of your own apathy.

Welcome to the modern economy. Are you prepared?
 
Welcome aboard, we got there a few years back
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2008 to be exact. Everything since then has been a band aid over a hemorrhaging head wound.

However, it doesn't TRULY become a collapse until folks can no longer get their money out of the banks (or face limits on amounts). That will be the true moment when things hit the fan...
 
i think the economic collapse started the minute people loose their jobs and have to rely on food banks to live, most of the time it takes several months of unemployment before welfare payments can begin the backlog is that long, and if someone is employed on minimum wage its almost impossible to put back an emergency fund or a food store when someone is on rock bottom to start with.
 
My wife and I would make $23 too much on unemployment to qualify for food stamps...last time both of us were laid off at the same time (in 2008, after the crash)....

Ridiculous.

Pretty much takes a full month or two after you are laid off, to collect your first unemployment check.
We had a nice emergency fund a few years back, but then I was laid off and it took 6 months to find something decent. Even then, the job sucked, but luckily, a better opportunity came along, so then did that.
 
I read the economiccollapse blog: He has been publishing (Today) that it has started esp with Junk bonds failing the last few trading days.
This Is What A Financial Crisis Looks Like
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/this-is-what-a-financial-crisis-looks-like

To go off track - read a vision the other day (from 1970") where the person saw the tribulations of the last days. Basically what happens is that the economy tanks - there is a very bad winter and every one trapped in their houses and after wards the starvation sets in. This is preceded by floods, drought storms etc which make the end result worse.

Ignoring any spiritual aspect, I recon we are in the start of the collapse and mother nature is adding stress to the system.

The Truth Comes Out: "This Is The Worst Global Dollar GDP Recession In 50 Years" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...ar-gdp-recession-50-years-deutsche-calculates
 
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Just wait until the real numbers hit from this retail season. I don't know about you guys, but this has been my leanest Christmas ever, and I didn't even hit Black Friday like I normally do. We'll still all have presents, etc., but each one cost a lot less than in years past, so we spent a lot less and on less expensive gifts.
 
There won't be any real numbers, just like the official unemployment/employment numbers just like the numbers coming from wall street they are skewed so as far as I am concerned the shtf has already began just that the majority haven't felt it yet since most numbers are artificially kept afloat, I hope I am wrong though I don't see anything giving me encouragement.
 
Stocks sure had a roller coaster week (and up/down by triple digits). Yet, I check CNN, Newsweek, etc. and it isn't even in their top news items.... WTHeck?

And they say we're crazy thinking there is a conspiracy......

At least the Fed raised interest rates....pretty much the band aid most were expecting....(though it's a band aid over a gaping wound.
 
House passes $680 billion tax bill
On Friday, the House will vote on a $1.1 trillion bill that funds the government through September 2016.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/house-spending-tax-votes-216896#ixzz3ubawh8NI

Budget deal increases federal deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars

"Republicans, meanwhile, said they were in too weak of a position to prevail over Mr. Obama"

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/dec/16/budget-deal-increases-federal-deficit-by-hundreds-/

The Repubs control both houses of Congress, Don't tell me they are in weak position, they hold the power of the purse, I call bologna! if there is a conspiracy it would be that the repubs and dems are of the same cloth but then again many of us knew that already No, the fix is already in.
 
Maverick said:
The Repubs control both houses of Congress, Don't tell me they are in weak position, they hold the power of the purse, I call bologna! if there is a conspiracy it would be that the repubs and dems are of the same cloth but then again many of us knew that already No, the fix is already in.
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The RINOs are in cahoots with the Democrats, that's why.
 
if there is a conspiracy it would be that the repubs and dems are of the same cloth but then again many of us knew that already
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Exactly why I like Trump. He's in it for his own personal legacy, not taking marching orders from the powers that be. Of course, it is also why he'll never get the nomination, so it is all a moot point anyhow. The establishment chose the next President almost a year ago, so all of this is really nothing more than a dog and pony show....masturbatory politics, if you will.....
 
I was reading earlier today that many dems in Florida is moving over in support of trump, there's a lot of pist off people in this country, the pols attacking trump truly don't know or don't care what the American people want, trump is saying what many of think and want to be heard, it wouldn't surprise me if trump does get nominated wether or not trump is electable remains to be seeing, I'm not ruling anything out.
 
I have been hearing that Trump support is grossly under-reported. Reporters are saying that people come up to them all the time and tell them off the record that they are Trump supporters.

Gazrok, there was actually an RNC meeting last week discussing a brokered convention.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...brokered-convention-is-no-surprise-heres-why/
Last week, a number of Republican Party leaders – including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell – gathered for a dinner party organized by Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee. They reportedly discussed how the party would handle the possibility of a brokered convention and, specifically, how they could prevent Donald Trump from winning the nomination if he wins a plurality but not a majority of the convention delegates.
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At this point, if the GOP doesn't go with Trump though, they are basically admitting defeat right out of the gate. Even with Trump, they likely won't win vs. Hillary. But, they could bank on a LOT of closet Trump supporters though too. My work is too young, for example, so I can't admit to liking Trump here....but most of these yahoos won't go to the polls either.

If he runs independent though, the GOP is sunk.
 
Shhhhhh. Don't tell the liberals this.I work for a small shop run by 2 exteremly liberal bosses. Don't call them liberals it ticks them off they prefer progressive what a joke. But I digress.

I tried explaining to them the economy is in death thrawls and bout to wither and die. I got screamed at and told its never been better. The stock market is at an all time high, unemployment is at all time low, nothings been stronger. Obama voters I tell you. There insane. This is precisely why the majority will not prepare. They believe all the bull crap coming out of CNN and MSN, just blindly following without question. That my friends is why most will not even think about and preparedness, they gladly sit ignorant with their heads in the sand.
 
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dosent matter where we live, the sheeple will never prepare and will believe all the BS that the media and politicians feed them. that's why I believe the collapse, WHEN the final collapse occurs, will be something greater than has ever happened before, and the death rate amongst the non prepared will be astronomical.
 
Let me bring this discussion back to the economy.

A couple of thoughts on recent events. Fed raising rates 1/4%. ALL show & tell. 100%. Dem's want to have 'proof' that the economy is improving. In a few months politicians (Hillary) will be able to say "the economy is getting better under socialism, see the fed started raising rates LAST YEAR and continue this year... it's only going to get better under me with continued socialism."

Reality: 1/4% means nothing. And "last year" is a weak point when done the last week of the year.

Christmas sales. Retail are down 6-7%. Compare that to the 'expected' down 3% number I read a few months ago. And that is AFTER stores are offering BIG discounts early. The stores are trying to get their 'revenue' numbers up. But the reality is that profits are probably down 30+%. Simple math: if a store makes 20% profits normally, you reduce sales by 7% and add that they dropped prices 10%. Heck, that formula alone drops profits to 0%. I don't expect stores to not have any profits for Christmas sales, and they will try to hide how bad it was, but boardroom discussions will be heated.

AND these horrible sales numbers while people are saving $billions on gas prices. They expected people to spend the 'savings', it's not happening in retail!

Gun sales. Guns are flying off the shelves. Oops, I'm not going to Macy's but going to Cabela's instead! Not only is this bad for traditional stores but consider what this says about people's faith in our gov't. Their faith in the police. Their security. Their response to Obama's anti-gun rheteric.

Housing sales. I saw something this week that November sales were down 10.5% month-to-month. It said something about the biggest month-to-month drop ever (from memory, I could be wrong).

So put it all together. The gov't has put on a blindfold. People are not buying 'stuff' or houses but are loading up on weapons.

Modern comparison: this is the moment in the movie JAWS where the guy is in the water, and the "daaa DUMM" music is playing. Gee, guess what happens next?
 
The stock market is at an all time high, unemployment is at all time low, nothings been stronger.
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Just like 2008, the stock market is artificially (and dangerously) overinflated right now.

Sure, it appears unemployment is down, but that's only if you really play with the included factors and what you exclude from that number. In reality, the REAL figure is more in double digit territory.

And we've definitely been stronger (anyone else remember facing this many imminent government shutdowns if they didn't agree on a budget before?). Me neither.

I think that's why Trump resonates. He's calling out the BS. Unfortunately, for him, some of his other ideas are just to un-PC for the mainstream. Guess we'll all see what happens.
 
Economy is based on house and car sales which are all debt and the banks have relaxed conditions of purchase like no deposit and 7 years to pay back vehicle, at close to zero rates.
The party cant go on forever and the small rate rise is a bit of a party pooper. It is going to take a good few months - but it is definitely getting very interesting.
 
Things are getting interesting again. The stock markets tumbling today on first trading day of year, does not bode well. Have we finally reached the point where fundamentals apply.
China on a trading halt today as markets more than 7% down, Japanese stocks down more than 3%, European stocks opened -3% (Dax, biggest market in Europe) US futures down down. US JNK eft junk bonds still crashing below key support levels. Gold price up $12.5 USD an ounce. Bad news from china manufacturing - more shaking coming!!

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/europe/
 
China has been cooking the numbers for years, and they're just now getting called on it. I suspect it will continue to go bad as more of their discrepancies see the light of day. There is some light, as this was really needed in the long run....but also, in the long run...this system is simply not sustainable. It only "works" now, because it HAS TO....the powers that be simply can't afford otherwise.
 
Not sure if you guys saw this article where the 20th largest bank in the world is telling all investors to sell everything and get capital back as we are heading for another 2008 type collapse. The article is making a lot of waves and is quiet frightening.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-everything-as-deflationary-crisis-nears.html

Commentary from the economic collapse blog.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/...taclysmic-year-and-investors-should-be-afraid

Great British Borrowing Binge sends debt rocketing 40% in just 6 months This is where the remaining economy is debt.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/great-british-borrowing-binge-sends-7166258
 
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...though china GDP is 11,385 and it's GDP PPP is 19,510 (2015) with a differences of 8.125, the bilaterally distorting of numbers is not only going to hurt china but every country that has invested in china, china's fake cities and constant building with no tenants is nothing more than a ruse to prop up it's PPP numbers and everybody knows it so why the hell would they give china's renminbi reserve status given it's PPP distortion? It's this kind of distortion that brought on the housing bust causing financial institutions to fail. This global economy is nothing more than a sham at the highest order, more and more I'm thinking WWII is over, the US ought to go back to being an isolationist and let the Sterling go back to being the primary reserve... oh wait.... na, we are screwed either way!
 
Stocks continue to fall, goods are piling up in storage yards, global trading is nearly at a stand-still, and now Iran is back in the international oil game, so oil will go down even further. Don't get me wrong, I like a cheap price at the pump, but that has some far-reaching implications too, as oil futures are a basis for a lot of loans that are going to go bust....and we ALL know what happens when a large segment of loans go bust....

As for being similar to 2008? I think we should almost HOPE and WISH for that....personally, I think it will be FAR worse....maybe even complete collapse. I just hope we can hold it together a little bit longer (for me to finish my desired preps!)
 
When oil prices goes below sustainable prices these are the industry affected (in the picture below), wells fargo already lost 118million in energy loans and counting, other banks haven't posted yet.
The affects is such a broad spectrum that's going to hurt a lot of people and states. Enjoy the cheap gas prices, come the end of this year it's all going to catch up to us.


related.jpg
 
Gazrok said:
As for being similar to 2008? I think we should almost HOPE and WISH for that....personally, I think it will be FAR worse....maybe even complete collapse. I just hope we can hold it together a little bit longer (for me to finish my desired preps!)
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I have been 'preaching' doom and gloom since August last year that we have gone over the tipping point. Yeah all the puzzle pieces are coming together for the crashes of all crashes - I am sue civil unrest and end of grocery shopping will come with it. Need lots of veg seed in your preps - not sure what else to say. I think by October 2016 the picture will be very clear to all. Even mainstream media is publishing lots of scary stuff.
 
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