Harvey - Worst Case Scenario

[DrHenley]

Harvey appears to be headed back into the Gulf of Mexico. It COULD potentially pick up strength and then hit Houston directly as a Category 1 Hurricane.

This thought is chilling. We're talking about a worst case scenario that is truly a "Disaster of Biblical Proportions." It would be bad enough if Houston weren't already soaked to the bone, but with the floodwaters already rising, and potentially millions of people stranded, a hurricane making landfall anywhere but east of Houston could make Katrina look like Harvey's baby sister.

The absolute best case scenario, of course, is for it to just peter out. But if it remains a strong storm, then the best case scenario (for Houston anyhow) is what you see in the predicted storm track below. Where it stays south and east of Houston, and comes back ashore east of Houston...whether or not it makes landfall as a hurricane again.

 

[DrHenley]

Harvey is officially back in the Gulf of Mexico now...

 

[jontte]

no need for evac...yup..now it's too late for that.

 

[DrHenley]

After regrouping in the Gulf, Harvey has picked up intensity and is picking up speed, heading straight for Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Good news for Houston, bad news for Louisiana, and New Orleans especially. It looks to me like there is now a high pressure ridge steering Harvey, unlike the two high pressure cells that trapped it earlier and make it meander like a drunken sailor. So hopefully it will not linger again but blow straight through.

 

[Dani]

Our local projection has it coming into Orange area, but will have to see about that one.

 

[DrHenley]

It's up to 50 mph winds and for the last 6 hours it's been going due north. Now it looks like Beaumont is going to get the worst of it the second go around.