Helpful Info. 6 Month Power Outage

[Clyde]

This could fit in almost any room on the page, but this one seemed most likely. I find it amazing that the US Government has taken the time to put the following information together. Also attached are two YouTube videos on this very subject.

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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...target-of-terrorists-profound-threat-says-dhs

https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/NIAC Catastrophic Power Outage Study_508 FINAL.pdf

 

[tmttactical]

Good post Clyde. I did not know about the report but I do think most here do try to prep for the long haul, not just the silly 14 day thing.

 

[Brent S]

There is no doubt that a prolonged power outage would change the world as we know it. I can’t imagine how bad it would get, quickly, in a place like New York City. With all the high rise buildings, no ventilation, no water, sewage, elevators, way to cook, etc. there would be mass die offs in the large cities very quickly. Scary to even think about, even scarier to imagine not wanting to be prepared for it. No one can prepare for everything, but anyone can at least make some preparations to make their life a little easier during something like this.

 

[tmttactical]

There is no doubt that a prolonged power outage would change the world as we know it. I can’t imagine how bad it would get, quickly, in a place like New York City. With all the high rise buildings, no ventilation, no water, sewage, elevators, way to cook, etc. there would be mass die offs in the large cities very quickly. Scary to even think about, even scarier to imagine not wanting to be prepared for it. No one can prepare for everything, but anyone can at least make some preparations to make their life a little easier during something like this.

First, there is no doubt there will be a massive die off in the urban area's. Now this is going to sound strange, but to survive in an urban area, you are going to need the massive die off. Water is going to be the key. Many people will have enough food in their pantries to last a month or two (rationed) but they will not have the water supply to last out 1 week. Without the internet and the TV to tell them what to do, they will die of dehydration while their watter heater is full of water, Their garden hose will still be holding some water. Once the die off is fairly over, there will be homes with food, maybe even water, the home owner did not think about. There will be commercial buildings with water storage tanks. This may sound funny to some but you really do not want to be at the bottom of the sewer hill. It really does flow (roll) down hill. Sewer system will back up as soon as the pumping stations stop working. The facilities (homes, buildings, stores, etc.) at the low points are going to overflow. There are no check valves in the sewer system. Extreme high rise buildings are going to be a killer, literally. Most people could climb 10 stories high but 20, 30 maybe even 40 stories and that will be the kiss of death. Now these very tall / commercial buildings will house both food and water, just nobody will bother with most of these buildings, because that is not where food or water is typically stored. Remember, 3 days without water and you brain is going to start shutting down. The survival key in the urban cities is to out last the masses. It won't take very long. You are really going to want a large store of air filtering masks. Between sewage, rotting food, decaying bodies (human and animal) and other unpleasant odors, the mask are going to be high in demand.

 

[user 6493]

nope

 

[jimLE]

The die off is one reason i want to back in the country.

 

[Maverick]

A national grid down would be devastating if prolonged, what people fail to realize the critical infrastructure and governmental continuity comes first before ma and pa toaster and that ain't going to happen 72 hours or even 2 weeks. 6 months of supplies sounds about right, we don't have enough morgues in this country, how many first responders are going to remain on the job after dealing with the body count for day on ends when they have there own family to contend with. It's going to be a rough road and very unpleasant decisions are going to have to made at some point.

Even if the grid were down only 2 weeks, 3 weeks, there still wouldn't be any shelves being stocked, one doesn't just start up production were they left off, same thing for the gas and oil refineries, it takes a lot of time starting a cold plant up, one is still looking at months and months before food starts rolling again.

The next county over from me

475,000 population of clark county washington and that is just one county in one state, there are 3,142 counties in the US, some bigger some smaller but most are going to go through the same thing clark county washington is going to go through, as I said above, we don't have enough morgues!

18,000 elderly needing critical care
8,000 that are disabled 40 and younger needing critical care
11,000 on psych meds that are a danger off the meds
2,000 Violent offenders
600 inmates

Total 39,600

41,610 below the poverty margin that needs food assistance

3 hospitals
522 hospital beds
200 doctors
4,000 registered nurses
396 sworn deputies and officers
500 firefighters and paramedics

 

[tmttactical]

The die off is one reason i want to back in the country.

The die off is going to happen there too, just not as fast. Medicine runs out, accidents happen, propane / fuel runs out. And even in the rural area's there are always the folks that are not inclined or worthy of hire. Without the welfare state to prop up these poor misunderstood folks (heavy sarcasm here) they will either have to do an honest days work or be forced by the slings and arrows of hard times and resort to stealing others folk's hard earned proceeds. Gee, anybody want to guess which way these folks are going to jump? Each area is going to pose unique problems to be solved. At least the rural folks will have more open space and will know where the bodies are buried, so to speak.

 

[lonewolf]

a 6 month power outage and at least one third to two thirds of the British urban population will be dead, if not by starvation then by disease.
people have enough food for a month? where did you hear that fallacy? the masses over here will have 3 days to 1 weeks worth tops!! the filling stations will be empty in 24 hours, the stores will be empty within 48 hours once the deliveries stop.
clean water will be the thing that kills most once the mains stop.

 

[jimLE]

The die off is going to happen there too, just not as fast. Medicine runs out, accidents happen, propane / fuel runs out. And even in the rural area's there are always the folks that are not inclined or worthy of hire. Without the welfare state to prop up these poor misunderstood folks (heavy sarcasm here) they will either have to do an honest days work or be forced by the slings and arrows of hard times and resort to stealing others folk's hard earned proceeds. Gee, anybody want to guess which way these folks are going to jump? Each area is going to pose unique problems to be solved. At least the rural folks will have more open space and will know where the bodies are buried, so to speak.

But at least the die off in the country won't be as bad.simply because there's fewer people.plus there's location's in which they can be buried out of shight.firewood for heat.and cooking.and the folks in the areas of the country that I've lived in.not only work their jobs.but work their property as well.in some cases.that includes fences and life stock.and maybe a garden.

 

[lonewolf]

I read a US survey some years ago and people were asked how long they could survive, about 28% said they could live for a week or two, 75% said they would be dead within TWO MONTHS.

 

[Maverick]

a 6 month power outage and at least one third to two thirds of the British urban population will be dead, if not by starvation then by disease.
people have enough food for a month? where did you hear that fallacy? the masses over here will have 3 days to 1 weeks worth tops!! the filling stations will be empty in 24 hours, the stores will be empty within 48 hours once the deliveries stop.
clean water will be the thing that kills most once the mains stop.

The average age in the county I mentioned above is 38, I think most in the county have at least 3 days of food and I think that is pushing it, most don’t even have flour, cornmeal etc.. in the kitchen to make from scratch, most also don’t have an alternative to electric cooking. I’ve been in a few homes were the pantry was used for miscellaneous storage and not food where most of the food is in the frig and freezer. At some point people are in for a rude awakening :-/

 

[lonewolf]

The average age in the county I mentioned above is 38, I think most in the county have at least 3 days of food and I think that is pushing it, most don’t even have flour, cornmeal etc.. in the kitchen to make from scratch, most also don’t have an alternative to electric cooking. I’ve been in a few homes were the pantry was used for miscellaneous storage and not food where most of the food is in the frig and freezer. At some point people are in for a rude awakening :-/

for once I agree with you, especially about the rude awakening.
a lot of city people I have known shop daily and only for that days "meal" which is probably something they throw into a microwave, people like my BIL don't even do that, he eats out every day, no food in the house, a packet of biscuits and a packet of crisps, that's it.

 

[Kootenay prepper]

Any location downstream of a city will be at risk of becoming contaminated as there won’t be workers to keep infrastructure running. This will cause contaiminants to overflow into streams and rivers. Will need to find a location away from industrial sites as many chemicals and gases will become unstable and can be carried by the wind over long distances.

 

[lonewolf]

yep, done.

 

[jimLE]

I have a ex sister unlaw who can't cook.id be amazed and shocked if she had anything other then junk food in her home.well maybe tv dinners .if anything else. I figure folks like her.will be dead inside of 2 weeks.

 

[DrHenley]

Kudos to you bigpaul for planning on living electricity free, but I'm too spoiled to live without electricity. I think I could manage everything except living without A/C. Been there, done that, don't want to ever go back. If you've ever tried to sleep in the southern part of the Deep South in the dead humid heat of summer, you'd know what I mean. (ask Gaz)

Besides, there's lots and lots and lots of wood at the BOL. Wood + heat + pressure vessel = gasified wood. Burning wood under the pressure vessel provides the heat, gasified wood inside the pressure vessel makes the gas to run the propane genny. The rest of the world be damned...

 

[tmttactical]

I think there is some confusion in regards to starving to death. People do not drop dead when the the cupboards run dry. It takes a fairly long time to starve to death, per wikipedia. Some will die faster (the skinny folks -- limited body fat) and some slower (the obese folks) depending the amount of body fat and energy burned. The children and the old will go first, organ shut down and medical situations. A lack of drinking water will get the people long before starvation. The picture is not pretty and I hope it waits until long after I am gone.

 

[Maverick]

Yes it's an old film but still very valid (1956 civil defense film) this explains some of the problem people will face be it a bomb or total grid down.

13:27

 

[lonewolf]

the old adage says that a human can live without any food for 3 weeks although some have lasted longer Bobby Sands the IRA hunger striker lived for 66 days but that was under medical supervision.
humans can live for 3 or 4 days without water, so they'll probably more likely die of dehydration than starvation.
I have been told that without food the human stomach starts eating itself so not a nice way to go.

 

[Brent S]

the old adage says that a human can live without any food for 3 weeks although some have lasted longer Bobby Sands the IRA hunger striker lived for 66 days but that was under medical supervision.
humans can live for 3 or 4 days without water, so they'll probably more likely die of dehydration than starvation.
I have been told that without food the human stomach starts eating itself so not a nice way to go.

One thing to consider too is yes you can live a few days without water, but you will be severely affected even after the first 30 hours. Weakness, confusion, etc. you won’t be in any shape to make good decisions to survive. The same goes for food, only a little longer. After 3 to 4 days you are allready out of energy and limited on your ability to keep walking, working or thinking clearly. So, yes you can live a while without either, but the average person won’t be able to make sound decisions when they are needed the most.

 

[lonewolf]

yes, once people run out of food post SHTF they wont be going very far and wont be in a fit state to cause much problems.
after 6 months the population is going to be decimated and will be a fraction of what it once was.

 

[lonewolf]

the electricity thing is quite interesting, I did some research back along and found that electricity wasn't connected to British houses until the early 1930s some rural properties didn't get it until the 1960s some places even later, although I believe some business premises had electricity before residential houses, I know my grandparents house in Barnstaple had gas lamps before they had electricity and still had them in the 60s.
so less than 80 years ago living without electricity was the norm, now most people couldn't survive without it, how times-and people- have changed in less than a century.

 

[Brent S]

the electricity thing is quite interesting, I did some research back along and found that electricity wasn't connected to British houses until the early 1930s some rural properties didn't get it until the 1960s some places even later, although I believe some business premises had electricity before residential houses, I know my grandparents house in Barnstaple had gas lamps before they had electricity and still had them in the 60s.
so less than 80 years ago living without electricity was the norm, now most people couldn't survive without it, how times-and people- have changed in less than a century.

The houses were designed differently then to accommodate cooking and ventilation better. The modern homes are about worthless without it.

 

[tmttactical]

@Brent S
Since when have normal folks made good decisions? Now add in dehydration and limited diet and they are done for but not as fast we we think. I just finished watching a Documentary on the sinking of the USS Indianapolis (per accounts from the actually survivors). Those men spent 5 days in the water and most were still able to make good decisions at the end. The weak of mind and spirit (non-believers) will perish first, by the end of the third or fourth day. The tough old birds will last until the 6th. or 7th. day after the water runs out.

To me, a nation wide pandemic SHTF will be the most dangerous event. It will be a very slow break down in services and be very difficult to manage your own supplies, due to the unknown length of the event. This type of event provides the most time to get out of Dodge but will also make the highways dangerous too. The government is going to want to limit the potential spread, so contaminated area's (cities) could and probably would be quarantined. Outlying towns will help enforce the quarantine. They are not going to welcome a boat load of possibly infected city folks.

A grid down situation will be the easiest for a prepper to survive. It is going to be very fast acting. The gangs will not have enough time to band together and plan any viable operations. It is going to be every thug for him / her self. The lack of water is going to be the limiting factor. It stops flowing as soon as the pumps shut down. Thugs have massive street smarts but engineering is not their strong suit. By the time they figure out (just like the majority of folks) that the power is not coming back on, they will already have one foot in the grave yard. I think the main die off will be over within 2 months. Knowledge of water purification and distillation will be critical.

 

[Brent S]

@Brent S
Since when have normal folks made good decisions? Now add in dehydration and limited diet and they are done for but not as fast we we think. I just finished watching a Documentary on the sinking of the USS Indianapolis (per accounts from the actually survivors). Those men spent 5 days in the water and most were still able to make good decisions at the end. The weak of mind and spirit (non-believers) will perish first, by the end of the third or fourth day. The tough old birds will last until the 6th. or 7th. day after the water runs out.

To me, a nation wide pandemic SHTF will be the most dangerous event. It will be a very slow break down in services and be very difficult to manage your own supplies, due to the unknown length of the event. This type of event provides the most time to get out of Dodge but will also make the highways dangerous too. The government is going to want to limit the potential spread, so contaminated area's (cities) could and probably would be quarantined. Outlying towns will help enforce the quarantine. They are not going to welcome a boat load of possibly infected city folks.

A grid down situation will be the easiest for a prepper to survive. It is going to be very fast acting. The gangs will not have enough time to band together and plan any viable operations. It is going to be every thug for him / her self. The lack of water is going to be the limiting factor. It stops flowing as soon as the pumps shut down. Thugs have massive street smarts but engineering is not their strong suit. By the time they figure out (just like the majority of folks) that the power is not coming back on, they will already have one foot in the grave yard. I think the main die off will be over within 2 months. Knowledge of water purification and distillation will be critical.

Good point on the Indianapolis survivors, yet they were mostly fit young men in the prime of their lives. Also you absorbe some water thru your skin. Either way, the ones that survived were tough and lucky. Hard to imagine knowing you were about to sink and not even be able to send a distress call.
I agree either a pandemic or grid down would equally be as likely to end the world as we know it. Nature usually finds a way to check an overpopulated species. We have evaded her for a long time due to advances in medical science, but it’s only a matter of time before she gets the upper hand one way or another.

 

[tmttactical]

Old Joke, Not nice to fool with Mother Nature, just before the lighting strike hit you. We will find a way to reduce out numbers. Either through technology and we move out to the stars or through technology we burn down our house. The one undisputed fact, there is a limit to everything. We can't keep breeding people and expect the planet to continue to provide enough food and water. We are the advanced breed of Lemmings. Our march to the sea is just at a slower pace.

 

[Dani]

I read a US survey some years ago and people were asked how long they could survive, about 28% said they could live for a week or two, 75% said they would be dead within TWO MONTHS.

That is sad to admit. . . I can only hope after being asked that question they wised up. Stocking up doesn't have to be expensive. I just cant imagine why one would choose not to add a little insurance to their life when they probably have it on their house and vehicles.

 

[Brent S]

That is sad to admit. . . I can only hope after being asked that question they wised up. Stocking up doesn't have to be expensive. I just cant imagine why one would choose not to add a little insurance to their life when they probably have it on their house and vehicles.

Well said. To so many though the connotation of prepping still seems paranoid or extreme. I think I spend less on it than auto insurance each year.

 

[lonewolf]

a lot of the sailors in WW2 who were torpedoed spent a lot of time in the water covered in oil and other fuels, most didn't last anything like 6 or 7 days but slowly disappeared under the waves one by one.
I grew up in a time long before supermarkets, mobile phones and computers, us kids got out into the fields and spent more time in the open than we did at home, nowadays all the kids are in their bedrooms on their smartphones and computers, I don't think they know what fresh air is.
most people these days don't know where their food comes from, sometimes even which animal, it comes in a little plastic box with an absorbent pad underneath to soak up the blood so they wont get offended, does anyone really think these sorts of people have a hope in hell of surviving some SHTF event when all the services they rely on are shut down? of course not.