Solar Flare Impact Study

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Overlord

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Clyde, if this is not for this section, my apologies.

I have a document that is a Solar Flare Impact Study written in 2007. I find it very informative. You, guys and gals, might find it interest also.
 

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  • SF Impact Study 2007.pdf
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A pertinent part of this:

The very largest solar storms have the potential for simultaneously
destroying key elements of the electrical power grid infrastructure. These elements are unique, expensive and have
long lead times (greater than 1 year) for replacement.

What this means, is that even if we throw everything at repairs, it may take that long to get the PARTS needed to fix it, even in today's modern world. Let alone a world knocked back to the 1800's.

Interesting though, they talk about radiation, but fail to conclude that nuclear plants, if the grid goes down, will have meltdowns, and that will bring about a whole other level to the threat.
 
Gazrok, that is an unfortunate side-effect. The Study focused more on the direct impact SF will cause to our planet and infrastructure.
 
I've read some fiction novels about what would happen if a solar flare impacted the earth and blew out all of the electricity. None of them mention nuclear reactors. Having an underground bunker is sounding more and more inviting.
 
I've read some fiction novels about what would happen if a solar flare impacted the earth and blew out all of the electricity. None of them mention nuclear reactors. Having an underground bunker is sounding more and more inviting.

LW, actually, the blowing out of the electrical grid has happened a number of time already. If I am not mistaken, it was the Canada event a few years ago which hit Montreal.

In a way, on the concept of the nuclear reactors, the chips managing the plant would be fried thereby shutting down all cooling systems to the core. This would then raise temperatures and result in a meltdown.

A Lead-lined underground bunker would be good.:nuke:
 
In 1859 several telegraph operators were electrocuted and the telegraph paper in the machines caught fire due to an emp from a solar flare.Also burned up miles of electric lines and telegraph cables.

So the possibility is very real,especially when the sun is peaking it's 13 year solar cycle and reverses it's magnetic poles.
 
In 1859 several telegraph operators were electrocuted and the telegraph paper in the machines caught fire due to an emp from a solar flare.Also burned up miles of electric lines and telegraph cables.

So the possibility is very real,especially when the sun is peaking it's 13 year solar cycle and reverses it's magnetic poles.

Here is a sample list of other events:
In 1859, what was to become known as the Carrington Effect.
The major solar flare that erupted on Aug. 4, 1972 knocked out long-distance phone communication across some states, including Illinois, according to a NASA account. "That event, in fact, caused AT&T to redesign its power system for transatlantic cables," NASA wrote in the account.
March 13, 1989 Canada experienced a major disruption of electricity for 9 hours
July 14, 2000, The Bastille Day event caused some satellites to short-circuit and led to some radio blackouts. It remains one of the most highly observed solar storm events and was the most powerful flare since 1989.
October 28, 2003, an X45 Class Solar Flare was detected but did not hit Earth. This was part of 9 Major Solar Flares at the time.
Dec. 5, 2006, it registered a powerful X9 on the space weather scale. This storm from the sun "disrupted satellite-to-ground communications and Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation signals for about 10 minutes," according to a NASA description. The sun storm was so powerful it actually damaged the solar X-ray imager instrument on the GOES 13 satellite that snapped its picture, NOAA officials said.
May 13-14, 2013, X3.2 Class SF were detected but did not hit the Earth directly. Effects included slight disruption of communications

On the average of 11 years, it does happen and it does have an effect on us. Let's just pray that massive solar flares and CMEs happen on a side away from our planet.
 
Here is a sample list of other events:
In 1859, what was to become known as the Carrington Effect.
The major solar flare that erupted on Aug. 4, 1972 knocked out long-distance phone communication across some states, including Illinois, according to a NASA account. "That event, in fact, caused AT&T to redesign its power system for transatlantic cables," NASA wrote in the account.
March 13, 1989 Canada experienced a major disruption of electricity for 9 hours
July 14, 2000, The Bastille Day event caused some satellites to short-circuit and led to some radio blackouts. It remains one of the most highly observed solar storm events and was the most powerful flare since 1989.
October 28, 2003, an X45 Class Solar Flare was detected but did not hit Earth. This was part of 9 Major Solar Flares at the time.
Dec. 5, 2006, it registered a powerful X9 on the space weather scale. This storm from the sun "disrupted satellite-to-ground communications and Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation signals for about 10 minutes," according to a NASA description. The sun storm was so powerful it actually damaged the solar X-ray imager instrument on the GOES 13 satellite that snapped its picture, NOAA officials said.
May 13-14, 2013, X3.2 Class SF were detected but did not hit the Earth directly. Effects included slight disruption of communications

On the average of 11 years, it does happen and it does have an effect on us. Let's just pray that massive solar flares and CMEs happen on a side away from our planet.

Absolutely,and yes my bad (11yr cycle,not 13),but you are right,we are hit all the time by small ones that usually only amounts to a little satellite disruption or a little static for a second on the cell phone.We've been hit,in modern history,quite a few times by large ones and can count on it to happen again.The size and class will dictate just how bad one will be.
 
Absolutely,and yes my bad (11yr cycle,not 13),but you are right,we are hit all the time by small ones that usually only amounts to a little satellite disruptions or a little static for a second on the cell phone.We've been hit,in modern history,quite a few times by large ones and can count on it to happen again.The size and class will dictate just how bad one will be.

Nope, not your bad. the 11 years is just an average. sometimes it does stretch to 13 and can go as low as 10.

To be frank, I wasn't interested in Solar Flares and CMEs before until last year when a co-prepper of mine here discussed it with the group and it did get me thinking. I was more concerned on the Flooding, Earthquakes, and Coastal Event Issues...

The more I researched, the more I saw the logic of what he presented to us.
 
Yep, when I first got into prepping, is when the danger of the nuke plants became in my awareness. No matter what, if we lose power for a period of weeks, this WILL happen. It is unavoidable.

A Lead-lined underground bunker would be good

You'd be surprised at how easy it is to protect against radiation, especially in a meltdown situation. Unlike a nuclear war, you don't have to deal with the blast wave.
Look it up, you'll be pleasantly surprised. Dirt, concrete, and metal are all good radiation shields. You can even have an above ground shelter (a necessity here in FL, where we can't dig down a lot).
This is actually the primary reason for my shelter plan, with the caveat that it will also be our go to place if we have to leave the main house due to an overwhelming force.
The bunker will be hidden, fireproof, and well-stocked, so even if they find us, we can wait out a bit, or unleash a bit of hell as we go. Primarily though, it's to serve as a place we can go if radiation is heading our way.

Luckily, we're outside of the 50 mile zone for our closest nuke plant, but we are in the 75 mile plume zone, if the wind is blowing our way the day it melts down. So, with just a little shelter, we should be able to get it down to nil.
(and have those potassium iodide pills handy for preventing thyroid cancer). Radiation is only really bad in the initial timeframe, it diminishes exponentially. Even for nuclear war, the max suggested time to shelter is two weeks.
 
here's what i cam across today..

:product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Nov 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 05-Nov 07 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 05-Nov 07 2015

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast
 
At least most modern nuclear plants do have a lot of fail safes. The big "IF" though, is that in a SHTF situation, will there be enough personnel there to enact them?
 

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