Monday April 20, 2020
COVID-19 at a glance
- Thread starter DrHenley
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Tuesday April 21, 2020
Wednesday April 22, 2020
If this trend line is correct, then we could be looking at a peak in the next few days. If you add New York's numbers it screwed everything up, so this is without New York, which seems to have it's own trend.
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Making sense of numbers that don't make sense is my forte, BTW. I spotted the "weekend dip" several weeks ago in the European data and realized that it was just incomplete reporting on the weekends and didn't mean anything. Neither did the scary looking Monday-Tuesday spike which was just the counts just getting caught up from the weekend.
This is part of what I mean by "reading the tea leaves." LOL
This is part of what I mean by "reading the tea leaves." LOL
I think France takes a weekend every two or three days, LOL
A pattern emerges...
This is what I've been waiting for, a consistent pattern among different countries. If we had had honest data from China and Iran, we could have known this much earlier. You get a rapid increase to a peak, then a decrease about half the speed of the increase until it levels off at about half the peak. In Italy's case it leveled off at about 58% of the peak. But it appears right now that after it levels off, it starts slowly going back up again. Need more data...
This is what I've been waiting for, a consistent pattern among different countries. If we had had honest data from China and Iran, we could have known this much earlier. You get a rapid increase to a peak, then a decrease about half the speed of the increase until it levels off at about half the peak. In Italy's case it leveled off at about 58% of the peak. But it appears right now that after it levels off, it starts slowly going back up again. Need more data...
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Why do I still keep seeing models predicting a symmetrical bell curve for daily deaths when that isn't at all what happened in Italy, Spain, or France???
Must be the same clowns that do the climate models.
Must be the same clowns that do the climate models.
Thursday April 23, 2020
gerardnaidas
New Member
Hi Doc,
Interesting charts. Here in Manila, yesterday was a dip from around 200 average new infections to 170 only but today has spiked to nearly 300. It looks as if the peak has not yet arrived here.
Where are you based? How’s the local situation ?
Regards,
G
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Interesting charts. Here in Manila, yesterday was a dip from around 200 average new infections to 170 only but today has spiked to nearly 300. It looks as if the peak has not yet arrived here.
Where are you based? How’s the local situation ?
Regards,
G
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Columbus GA. We currently have 252 cases in the county and 4 deaths. Hospitals are empty waiting for the surge, which hasn't come yet. Hot spots in Georgia are Atlanta and Albany. Albany seems to be worse than Atlanta, it's just not as big. We haven't figured out why.
There is so much scatter in France's numbers, it's hard to have any kind of good confidence level for a model, but I kept trying different models for the trend line. Here are the Daily Deaths graphs with a trend line for Spain, Italy, and France. It still looks the same after adding the last two days' worth of data, so confidence is higher now in the model.
gerardnaidas
New Member
I see!
We were once waiting for the surge, and hospitals were preparing. When it happened some hospitals still couldn’t cope up and Murphy’s law happened to them with majority of the medical personnel all sick and the hospitals having to be closed .
Now lots of improvement on facilities and mass testing but we are still on wait and see if the lockdown really flattened the curve.
Keep safe Doc.
G
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Thanks, you too G.
Friday April 24, 2020
Saturday April 25, 2020
KateMTx
A True Doomsday Prepper
Belgium looks like they're having some problems there.Saturday April 25, 2020
They are having problems, but they are also reporting suspected COVID-19 deaths which bumps the numbers up some.
Apparently they had a big carnival near the end of February which caused a lot of community spread. Just like New Orleans Mardi Gras and NYC Chinese New Year celebrations.
Here is an article discussing why their numbers are so high:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-is-belgium-a-europe-hotspot-for-covid-19-deaths-11975017
Sunday April 26, 2020
