Helpful Info. Pandemic Exposure Matrix

I've received some great feedback from everyone on the Pandemic Kit and thanks for those that posted. So here is the second part of what I plan to place in Pandemic Planning. It's a theory that has worked well in the my field of epidemiology, I am sure their are some who worship certain celebrities on Youtube or maybe you are a subscriber to certain viewpoints on public health intervention or nursing.

I'll let the experts way right in on the issue. For those that are concerned, consider building a robust kit that will cover most outbreaks. Simple to build, you should consider racking and stacking (or doing what I call a threat analysis), those who are former military, medical, law enforcement, EMS have a good understanding of what I am posting here. Those in Public Health or have worked in CDC, are more familiar with a concentric ring theory of epidemiology, your tracing back to the zero case. So for those that fear pandemic explosion, some thoughts, do a study of your daily life. This is not a direct science or formatted computer theory, just something I've statistically ran, my study is a bit higher because of my interest in virology and epidemiology. Most of you who are a healthcare professional, affiliated with EMS, Daycare provider or teacher know that your indirect line of those who have low immunities to diseases and other contagions and in due course are in the direct fire or as I call it the "X". So grade yourself today, while I get back to finishing my taxes and shake my head that we have to pay again to a government who mismanages my money.

1) How much contact do you have with people each day, if your in medical, score yourself a 10, if a teacher, a 10, if you work at Walmart a 10, any job where you have constant contact with people that could be susceptible. If you work at home behind a computer with no contact with people, score yourself a 0-1.
2) How much time do you do errands or come in contact with those in stores, Score yourself a 10, if your exposure is 10-20 hours per week, back that score by 1 for each hour difference from 10.
3) Do you have a pandemic kit (similar to my post) that may protect you and your members, score yourself a minus 10 if you do and add plus 5 if you don't.
4) Do you have over the counter medications and a good supply of herbal medicines with a book that shows how to use them minus 10, if you do, +5, if you don't
5) Do you know a physician or pharmacist who can aide you in getting needed prescription drugs in an event (mind you, if its pandemic and their is no antiviral, it doesn't really matter, but knowing how to restore fluids through Intravenous solutions is a force multiplier), score yourself a -10, 0 if not
6) Do you have a sentinel warning system (pigs, chickens, animals susceptible to the virus in question near your area), Plus 5 if not on your home.
7) Are your vaccinations up to date (Current year flu) up to date? (I know their are those that don't believe, but think about it, it might decrease the severity of the illness), minus 5 if you do, plus 5 if you don't
8) Do you take dietary supplements, score a 5 if you do daily that will increase your immunity, score 0 if you don't
9) Are you physically fit....score 10 if your working out all the time, score a zero if your a couch potato, been honest here, score between the two grades on how your active..walking, etc.
11) Are you overweight or above your BMI? Score 10 if you are and score 0 if your not.
10) Do you live in or nearby (50 miles from) a large metropolitan area (greater than 100,000K), if yes, score yourself a 10, minus 10 if not.
11) Follow-on, score yourself a +20 if greater size Metro Service Area population of 5 million, +10 for 4 million, 8 for 2 million, 5 for 1 million, 4 750K, 3 500K, 2 for 1-2K and 1 for any population town greater than 1000.
12) Does your community have a plan to deal with a grid down situation? Taking into consideration that in grid down, professional may not be at work, same applies to EMS/like because they may be affected by illness since they are the ones who have likelihood of exposure. Score yourself a 10 if no plan exists, a 5 if a plan exists and a 1 if by chance your in a small community and your leadership/magistrate/EMS are forward thinkers and have a plan to deputize citizens.
13) Does you community have a plan to address refugees or a virus control/ECP/etc. -5 if you do, -10 if they have community awareness/exercises and plus 20 if they don't have a plan and allow direct access to a virgin population.
14) Does your community have ample disposable masks to control droplet or airborne viruses? -10 if they do, 0 if they don't
15) Does community have a message program that educates community on hand washing steps or do people know to get online to CDC or local Public Health to get info? Does local T.V affiliates post on website information? If so, -10, 0 if no.
16) At your BOI, do you have an identified quarantine area for those that are sick. Does it have positive air pressure and does your group practice donning and doffing protective gear properly (10, if no, 0 if yes).
17) Do you destroy all waste and biohazards of sick? Yes 0, No 10
18) Do you have a plan to deal with those who are deceased, are you protected when completing this task? Yes, 0, No 10.

You can add more controls to this questionnaire, just know that you will have to compute the trigger higher.

Now score yourself, if your higher than 120, you've got some serious work ahead, if your around 50-120, your planning and are aware of your shortfalls, if your below 50, then possibly with a little luck and provided you have bugged out of the metro area in time, you will at least limit your exposure.

So how did I rate, well despite all my preps, I live in a 100K MSA, I score well on some and score poorly on community planning because the community doesn't like to release their information, but knowing the planners, they hold their breath. So I fall, despite my best planning above a 50, however, as designer, I also did not address the bug-out plan and that is a multiplier. Then my score drops into the teens

A lot of that scoring is pretty black or white. There are shades of gray here, for example, one may have a lot of medical supplies, but not an actual pandemic kit. One may be in reasonable shape, maybe a little overweight, but still active and capable, etc.

Another example. Being away from a large metro area is great for not catching a pandemic, but assistance will also be slower in coming in a rural area....so pros and cons.

Whose community actually has a grid-down response? None I've ever seen. In rural areas, at least we're used to power being out a while, but no real cohesive design or plan for it as a whole community.

This matrix is only a selection of the questions, representing the overall project. I did not mean to inflame or insinuate that people should use this as some gold standard in evaluating their decisions to respond to an event. Simply it was to inform and help some who have questions about their own planning and community planning. I did an abstract because the overall composition of this research contributes to a higher variable that dissect across several data variables and while I did not present a specific "null" or placed the overall hypothesis on this post, I simply picked populations as the main variable and sampled several factors. I asked the computer to select randomly based on population and a suspected antigen of unknown origin. With that initial selection, I randomly selected using a DOD sampling schematic a sample of these questions and attempted to do only questions that were closed ended questions, either ending in a yes or no answer. Ultimately trying to eliminating as much possible grey areas as possible. If not the research sampling would consist of over 14536 questions ranging in scales of 0-500 and this was the smallest sample size ran for this particular subject.

As for rural versus urban response planning. Your correct in your evaluation that rural areas will have lowest priority in receiving support in a mass event. I'd like to point out in an early post, I pointed that the United States government has limited response gear called "Push Packs" under the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS). The SNS program was created following September 11, 2001 and the subsequent deliberate Anthrax attacks at government leaders. These two events highlighted the need for the U.S. government to have a response program and that "SNS" programs be part of the regional/metro level planning. In most cases, rural public health leadership working with local medical boards and hospital/clinic, EMS leadership have developed a response plan to support the distribution of said material, provided that these are single event responses. The government does not have "Push Packs" for every city in America, its not realistic and therefore receive triaging based on threat and matrix analysis. So yes, while rural areas will not receive a 24 hour push package under a long pandemic outbreak, these communities trade off time/support versus exposure due to masses and would eventually receive support from the National Response plan under the direct vendor program (of course that is another discussion that I am not going to post on this site now). Hence, why I placed that matrix question out in the thread.

As for community response plans, planning is also a variable that when ran, runs into several inter-department areas, not simply EM planning. Just evaluating the Strategic National Stockpiling Program can be a headache. I would agree most communities do not have a grid down plan, but they do have other plans that do assess several factors in a grid down situation, example: Impact of martial law and degrees of enforcement used in quelling civilian disturbance. I could give thousands of cases of break down in communication, despite effective training programs that the federal government has spent in attempting to better coordinate/communicate ties between even law enforcement and their is still break downs. So while I know that regional planning agencies haven't placed it on paper, their have been discussions and understandings.

As for placing this matrix out there, I wanted those who have zero or limited experience in evaluating an event, the opportunity for them to assess and evaluate their own needs. Thanks for your input and I will refrain from placing such products out for this community to use in the future.